Cuts to air pollution could SPEED UP climate change in the short term
Dramatic cuts to air pollution in Europe and could make worse in the short term, but 'doing nothing would be worse' say scientists. Experts from the University of Reading found that cutting pollution in areas with heavy industry would lead to short term temperature spikes and heavier rainfall. This is down to polluting particles currently reflecting a certain amount of sunlight and stopping it from reaching the ground, according to Professor Richard Allan. He says we should still 'take the hit' and clean the atmosphere as not doing so would have devastating consequences in the long term as well as impact people's health. To combat the increase in temperatures from cutting pollution it is 'more important than ever we reduce greenhouse gas emissions,' Allan said. In a series of studies scientists predict a rapid increase in European and Asian heatwaves by 2050 as air pollution is cut sharply in Asia. The worst-case-scenario prediction indicated that the hottest day of the year may be up to 7.2 degree Fahrenheit hotter by 2050, compared to the present day. Researchers say 30-40 per cent of this increase would be due to air pollution cuts. 'The immediate health benefits of reducing air pollution are clear, but tackling air pollution can initially accelerate climate change,' said researcher Dr Laura Wilcox. 'This warming side effect underlines the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions quickly to limit damaging climate change in the long term and give us a chance of meeting the Paris Agreement targets.' Researchers say it is important that we don't become complacent - that while there will be a short term hit to the climate, we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 'This is a case of short-term climate pain for long-term gain,' Wilcox said. 'It might seem counterproductive to prompt temperature rises by reducing pollution, but this research also shows this effect will disappear in a few decades. 'If we carry on emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at the current rate, we will see bigger temperature rises that are far longer lasting. 'This would be incredibly difficult for society to adapt to, and would cause devastating environmental damage.' Dr Wilcox predicts there will also be more rapid increases in rainfall during tropical monsoon season as a response to dramatic cuts in Asian air pollution. However the acceleration of climate change from cutting air pollution would be limited to the next few decades after which the effect would be swamped by the larger response to increases in greenhouse gasses. Allan says they are already seeing some changes in temperatures over parts of Asia as industry slows down due to Coronavirus in China. He said with fewer planes not flying and factories not running there are fewer heavy polluting particles entering the atmosphere - and then reflecting the sunlight away. 'We could expect to see warmer temperatures over the country if the slowdown in pollution continues,' he said. The effect of particle pollution on the atmosphere can already be seen in observations over Europe and China. In a separate study by Reading scientists measurements of sunlight at the Earths surface and from space between 1985 and 2015 suggest increased air pollution over Europe and China blocked sunlight from reaching the surface. They found it also heated the air higher in the atmosphere as the pollution particles absorbed more sunlight. The study also implies that cleaning of this air pollution, first in Europe and increasingly now in China, has caused surface warming as more sunlight can reach the Earth, but reduced heating of the atmosphere as less sunlight is trapped. 'Cutting air pollution is already having unintended consequences on the climate and makes it even more important to cut greenhouse gas emissions,' said Allan. 'This research is important because it explains the acceleration in rainfall increases and warming predicted by the computer simulations.' The research comes from three papers published in the journals , and . Allan says we should aim to cut greenhouse emissions more quickly as we reduce pollution to limit the short term effects on the climate. It's not the first study to say we need to cut greenhouse gas emissions faster than was agreed as part of the Paris agreement. A different study found that greenhouse gas emissions would actually need to be cut by more than previously estimated due to a 'decade of inactivity'. Nations must quadruple their efforts, or do the same in one-third of the time, to comply with the climate pact they made as part of the Paris Agreement in 2015. The accord commits countries to keeping the increase in the global average temperature well below 3.6F (2C)