China’s Role in Climate Change, and Possibly in Fighting It
, to limit global warming, he threw an accusing spotlight on China, the planets biggest emitter of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels and industry. Under that treaty, China will be able to increase these emissions by a staggering number of years 13, and be allowed to build hundreds of additional coal plants, . But China has said it is serious about cutting greenhouse gases. Is China living up to its word, and what more could it do if it wanted to become a global leader in fighting climate change? Heres an explanation. China stands head and shoulders above other countries in greenhouse gas output. Starting in the 1990s, its emissions leapt, and by 2007 it had the United States as the worlds biggest carbon dioxide polluter. The United States had been the biggest emitter for . In 2015, China released almost 10.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry, equal to 29 percent of total emissions worldwide, according to the , a research consortium. The United States emitted 5.4 billion tons in 2015. Chinas daunting pollution in part reflects its population 1.37 billion people, more than any other country. As Chinese people have become richer, buying cars, bigger homes, refrigerators and air-conditioners, their emissions have risen, although their emission per capita remains much lower than Americans. But more than sheer population lies behind Chinas rising emissions. Although China is still relatively poor, its average emissions per person have already average. Another cause is Chinas galloping industrial growth, fueled by coal. Chinas economic takeoff has been propelled by high-polluting factories, steel mills, cement and power plants. The Chinese emissions story is really a coal story, , a senior researcher at Cicero, a climate and environmental research institute in Oslo, wrote recently. China has been trying to shift away from these smokestack industries and to cleaner energy, and coal demand has cooled since 2012. But coal still provides about two-thirds of Chinas total energy needs. And each creates more carbon dioxide than oil or gas. China has long argued that as a poorer country, it shouldnt shoulder the same strict caps on its greenhouse gas pollution that rich countries should accept. Instead, China has argued that developing countries should be allowed to let their emissions rise while their citizens grow out of poverty. The that China made as part of the Paris agreement reflected that idea. Instead of agreeing to a firm ceiling on emissions, China pledged that it would cut carbon intensity the amount of carbon dioxide pollution released to create each dollar of economic activity. That means Chinas emissions can keep growing as the economy expands, but at a slower rate than the growth in gross domestic product. In the Paris agreement, China said it would cut its carbon intensity by 60 to 65 percent by 2030, compared to its level in 2005. China also pledged that its carbon dioxide emissions would reach their maximum by around 2030, and that it would try to reach an earlier peak. It aims to achieve that partly by expanding solar, wind, nuclear and other nonfossil energy to about 20 percent of total energy use. Chinas carbon dioxide pollution output has already slowed more than the government promised in the Paris agreement, and that trend seems likely to continue, many experts say. Chinas emissions are likely to peak years before the 2030 date that the government pledged as part of the Paris agreement. China is very close to making the turn in its carbon dioxide emissions. It will very likely be before 2030 and in the very best case may already have happened, said , a founding partner at the . International pressure may have played a part in curbing Chinas emissions, but the main reasons have been domestic: an economy less dependent on heavy industry and coal, and public discontent over air pollution. That widespread anger has reinforced Chinese leaders efforts to cut smokestack industries, and those cuts are also good for limiting greenhouse gases. The real drivers for clean energy in China are much closer to home than Paris, said Lauri Myllyvirta, a Beijing-based analyst of Chinese energy policy for Greenpeace. The air pollution and the need to reinvent the economy are much bigger drivers. China could have signed onto bolder emissions pledges in the Paris agreement, and many environmental advocates and scientists hope that it will offer more ambitious goals in future talks. But the Chinese government tends to make conservative commitments in international agreements, and the Paris treaty was designed so governments could offer modest initial goals that became more ambitious, said Mr. Peters, the researcher at Cicero. Since countries dont want to fail, it is natural that the emission pledges will be conservative, Mr. Peters said by email. But, this is partly the point of the Paris agreement and the bottom-up pledges. They are designed to start weak with ambition increased over time. How quickly and deeply China drives down greenhouse gas emissions could be politically contentious. While some Chinese officials want audacious steps to cut coal and encourage green growth, others worry that going too fast would put too many mining and industrial workers out of a job, and soak up government revenue better spent elsewhere, several experts said. The fundamental uncertainty is whether and how fast China can be in terms of transforming its economy from an energy-intensive, investment-intensive economy, said , an expert on Chinese energy policy at the World Resources Institute in Washington. Old habits are really hard to kick. Mr. Trumps announcement that he wants to leave the Paris accord wont prompt the Chinese government to retreat from its pledges, but it could embolden local officials and energy companies resistant to faster cuts, said Zou Ji, a professor of environmental policy at Renmin University in Beijing. It will have an impact on interest groups, Mr. Zou said. For example, high-carbon industries, such as coal power, metals, steel, will say: America is doing nothing, why is the central government demanding that we take action? Why dont you loosen up on us? Mr. Trumps retreat from the climate agreement has offered China an opportunity to promote itself as a responsible defender of the international climate change pact. But China doesnt want to assume the role of single-handedly defending the Paris accord. Instead, China is likely to turn to the European Union, as well as to other developing countries such as India and South Africa, to steer the negotiations, several Chinese experts said. As well, China still holds the awkward status of being the worlds biggest carbon dioxide polluter. And even while it has limited coal plant construction at home, China has expanded exports of these plants. Chinas claim to a leadership mantle would be stronger if it cut back overseas sales of coal plants, set stricter pollution standards for them and focused on exporting clean energy technology, said Mr. Myllyvirta from Greenpeace.