Covid-19 'a minor market perturbation' compared to economic impact of climate change
Covid-19 will look like minor blip on the global economy compared the nightmare that is climate change. That is the view of British sustainability writer Sir Jonathon Porritt, who chairs Air New Zealands sustainability advisory panel. His words are bound to send a shiver down the spine of Air New Zealand, considering the devastating impact Covid-19 has had on its business and aviation as a whole. The global airline industry is estimated to be burning through almost US$13 billion (NZ$19b) a month, with an estimated 4.8 million jobs across the sector at risk due to Covid-19. READ MORE: * Flight to nowhere sends the wrong message in climate crisis * Air New Zealand posts full year loss of $454m, its first since 2002 * A free ride on pollution: why our airlines don't pay fuel tax Since the start of the pandemic Air New Zealand has reduced its workforce by 4000 staff, shelved new routes, cancelled old ones, grounded fleets and posted its first loss in 18 years. Significantly fewer flights in the past year mean its carbon emissions are 19 per cent less than in 2019 and its emissions profile was expected to be lower for years to come. But that wont do much to stave off the threat of climate change. This time last year, in a New Zealand Biojet Consortium submission to the Government, Air New Zealand said climate change was without doubt the biggest risk the airline industry has faced. As an airline we are already seeing the impact of climate change in New Zealand, with increasing volatile weather patterns and severe events such as cyclones and storms affecting flights and preventing customers from getting to where they need to go, it said. In Air New Zealands recently released 2020 sustainability report Porritt says the threat of climate change is a nightmare that will make the impact of Covid-19 on the global economy look like a minor market perturbation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says emissions of greenhouse gases need to halve over the next decade. The aviation sector will not meet that target but its going to have to be on a steeply declining trajectory by then, he says. Porritt has been deeply critical of the aviation sector in the past and says it has been complacent and obstructive in addressing climate change challenges. If nothing else, Covid-19 has shocked aviation into a more acute realisation both of its vulnerabilities and of its obligations. He hopes it has made governments realise how much smarter they needed to be in providing the right policies for aviation to succeed in addressing climate change. Porritt says despite painful decisions born out of Covid-19, Air New Zealand has not put sustainability on the back burner. In its submission last year Air New Zealand said it was unlikely to deliver further significant carbon emission reductions in New Zealand without access to readily available aviation biofuels. Aviation biofuel is renewable, not based on fossil fuels and suitable for use in aircraft in place of, or blended with, petroleum-based jet fuel. It can be made from a range of biomass feedstocks including vegetable oil, tallow, woody biomass and even municipal solid waste. The technology for sustainable aviation fuel already exists, and it is already at commercial production globally. Air New Zealand chief executive Greg Foran says, through its Covid-19 recovery strategy called kia mau, it is increasingly clear Air New Zealand and the country need to take decisive action over the next 10 years to develop sustainable alternative fuels. Worldwide aviation produces 2 per cent of all human-made carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, according to non-profit Air Transport Action Group, made up of aviation companies such as Airbus, Boeing and Rolls-Royce. United States non-profit the Environmental and Energy Study Institute says if global commercial aviation were a country in national emissions standings, it would rank sixth, between Japan and Germany. It says the non-CO2 effects of aviation, such as warming from aircraft contrails and other pollutants, bring the total contribution of commercial aviation to about 5 per cent of the worlds climate-warming problem. Foran, who started as chief executive in February, says sustainable fuels and the necessary infrastructure require significant upfront capital and policy changes to give producers confidence there will be long-term demand. These fuels currently cost two to three times that of traditional fuel but that commercial gap can be narrowed, Foran says. Making it a reality requires collaboration and investment from the public and private sectors, and creating policy that attracts investment and ensures long-term industry competitiveness, he says. Investing in sustainable alternative fuels will create skilled jobs in regional New Zealand and harness waste materials from forestry and landfills or municipal solid waste, he says. It makes sense for New Zealand to be an early adopter of next-generation aircraft such as electric, hybrid or hydrogen because of access to a mix of renewable energy and a high proportion of relatively short-distance regional flights, he says. In a recent article for Capa Centre for Aviation, Chris Lyle, chief executive of Air Transport Economics , wrote that aviation traffic (and emissions) was not expected to reach 2019 levels for several years. But this is no reason for cutting back on efforts to mitigate ongoing emissions, Lyle says. In order for aviation to make its required contribution to Paris Agreement targets, emissions need to be at least half of 2019 levels by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050, he says. Existing technology and measures that improve aircraft fuel efficiency are substantially inadequate to meet the challenges of climate change, he says. The best solutions are synthetic e-fuels (made directly from CO2 captured from the atmosphere), fuel cell-powered electric aircraft (like batteries, but that dont need recharging) and potentially hydrogen (renewable energy stored in the form of hydrogen gas, made from water), he says. But, he says, carbon offsetting should not be encouraged. Money would be far better spent on synthetic fuel evolution than on carbon offsets and, where feasible, revenues generated from current offsetting practices might be redirected accordingly. The uptake of Air New Zealand customers voluntarily offsetting their carbon emissions through the airlines forest planting and sustainable energy scheme called FlyNeutral was 7.1 per cent, up from 4.6 per cent last year. Lyle says the challenge of transitioning to synthetic fuels is formidable, given the dire state of the industry, and the low cost of fossil fuels. Financial incentives should be offered to synthetic fuel producers and revenue streams could be developed by imposing levies on fossil fuels, he says. A multi-national approach to emissions mitigation would be ideal, with policy focusing on not just aviation but tourism, trade and the economy. An ultimate tool for governments would be capping airline operations by route using a benefit criteria including emissions reduction targets, he says. The reality is that if we procrastinate now, an increasing alternative, and perhaps the only one in the long-term will be to reduce flying generally. In July the International Air Transport Association (Iata) called for the International Energy Agency to prioritise investment in sustainable aviation fuel to help aviations contribution to the post-Covid-19 recovery. Iata says sustainable aviation fuel can cut CO2 lifecycle emissions up to 80 per cent compared with conventional jet fuel. Sustainable aviation fuels are certified as safe, sustainable, and ready-to-use with more than 250,000 flights having already used a of blend sustainable and traditional aviation fuel, it says. Robert McLachlan, Professor in the school of fundamental sciences at Massey University, says that while Air New Zealand's improving carbon offsetting rates show customers are more climate-conscious, many environmentalists believe offsetting is not part of the solution for addressing aviation emissions. Offsetting is not going to save the world. At some point we have to reduce emissions at the source, McLachlan says. He says producing New Zealand-made sustainable alternative fuels is the most realistic option to reducing carbon emissions in aviation. In terms of the long-term solution for New Zealand, thats one that could possibly work. The types of sustainable fuels being proposed, while high in production costs, do not require new engines to be fitted to aircraft, he says. Thats the beauty of it. An immediate area that needs addressing is the inclusion of international aviation emissions in New Zealands greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, McLachlan says. Climate Change Minister James Shaw says there are no plans to include international aviation in the domestic Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the Government's main tool for meeting international and domestic climate change targets. But the Zero Carbon Act does require that, by December 31, 2024, the Climate Change Commission must provide advice to the minister on whether New Zealands target of net zero emissions of all greenhouse gases by 2050 should be amended to include emissions from international shipping and aviation and, if so, how the target should be amended, Shaw says.