How Electrifying Everything Became a Key Climate Solution
How electrification became a major tool for fighting climate change. A key part of Americas plan to slash carbon emissions: Plug in The United States still gets most of its energy by setting millions of tiny fires everywhere. Cars, trucks, homes and factories all burn fossil fuels in countless engines, furnaces and boilers, creating pollution that heats the planet. To tackle climate change, those machines will need to stop polluting. And the best way to do that, experts increasingly say, is to replace them with electric versions cars, heating systems and factories that run on clean sources of electricity like wind, solar or nuclear power. But electrifying almost everything is a formidable task. Other Other Heavy-duty trucks Heavy-duty trucks Buses and rail Buses and rail <0.1% Medium- duty trucks Medium- duty trucks Other Other 0% Transportation Construction Construction quads <1% electric Aviation Aviation Industrial 0% Passenger vehicles Passenger vehicles quads 14.1 7% Water heating Water heating Chemicals Chemicals 7.3 Food and animal feed Food and animal feed Space heating Space heating 16% Paper products Paper products Residential Iron and steel Iron and steel quads Commercial quads Other Other Other Other 5% Space heating Space heating Light. Light. Other Other Heavy-duty trucks Heavy-duty trucks 0% 2% 3.8 <0.1% Buses and rail Buses and rail Machinery and electronics Machinery and electronics Medium- duty trucks Medium- duty trucks Shipping Shipping Other Other 1.9 1.5 Agriculture and forestry Agriculture and forestry Transportation Construction Construction 24.5 quadrillion B.T.U. 2.0 <1% electric Aviation Aviation Passenger vehicles Passenger vehicles 2.3 0% Industrial 14.1 18.2 quads 7% Wood, glass and plastic products Wood, glass and plastic products Chemicals Chemicals Water heating Water heating 7.3 1.8 Food and animal feed Food and animal feed Cement and lime Cement and lime Space heating Space heating Washing and drying 5.6 Washing and drying Air conditioning Refrigeration Refrigeration Air conditioning 16% Paper products Paper products Residential Iron and steel Iron and steel Air conditioning Air conditioning 11.7 quads Cooking Cooking Refrigeration Refrigeration Commercial Water heating Water heating Lighting and electronics Lighting and electronics 8.7 quads Other Other Other 3.0 Other 2.1 5% Space heating Space heating Lighting and electonics Lighting and electonics 2.1 Cooking Cooking 0% . Transforming the economy so that more things run on clean electricity is a cornerstone of President Bidens to nearly zero by 2050. The New York Times used data from , an energy modeling firm, to visualize what the nations energy use might look like in 2050 if the United States were able to meet the presidents climate change goals, using technology available today or just over the horizon, while minimizing costs. In this future, far more of Americas energy would come from electricity. The country would also use less energy overall, since electric devices are often more efficient than ones that burn fossil fuels. For example, a gasoline-powered car uses only of the energy in its fuel to move its wheels, with most of the rest wasted as heat. An electric car uses about 80 percent of its energy. Medium- duty trucks Heavy-duty trucks Other Passenger vehicles 89% Construction Transportation Chemicals Aviation 25% electric Other Industrial Water heating Food and feed Space heating Cement and lime 63% Air cond. Residential Iron and steel Machinery Paper Air cond. Other 39% Commercial Space heating Other 96% Light. Less energy use in 2021 Medium-duty trucks Shipping Other Heavy-duty trucks Buses and rail Passenger vehicles Construction 89% Transportation Industrial Aviation Chemicals Wood, glass and plastic products Other 25% electric Water heating Food, bev. and feed Space heating 63% Cement and lime Washing and drying Agriculture and forestry Residential Machinery and electronics Air conditioning Refrigeration Paper products Iron and steel Air conditioning Other Water heating Refrigeration Commercial Lighting and electronics Space heating Other Lighting and electronics Cooking 63% Cooking Less energy use in 2021 There are signs the United States is already moving in a more plugged-in direction. Sales of electric vehicles last year, accounting for 5.8 percent of new cars sold, and the administration has proposed regulations to ensure they make up two-thirds of sales by 2032. Electric heat pumps for the first time last year. A is providing billions of dollars in subsidies to hasten the transition. Plugging in isnt the only way to cut emissions. Other options include clean hydrogen fuels, biofuels or technologies that capture pollution from the air, smokestacks or machines. But for many activities, the most straightforward solution is to go electric. If you ask, How on Earth are we going to power the modern economy cleanly, nothing else makes sense, said Saul Griffith, founder and chief scientist of Rewiring America, an advocacy group. All roads point to electrification. Still, widespread electrification faces huge obstacles. It would mean replacing more than 280 million gasoline-powered cars and 200 million home appliances that run on natural gas such as furnaces, water heaters, stoves and dryers. Many Americans might balk at switching due to costs, logistics or a simple lack of interest. And some activities, such as long-haul trucking or chemical manufacturing, are difficult to electrify. Its also not enough to shift to electric machines if their electricity comes from power plants that burn fossil fuels. Power plant emissions since 2005 as cheaper and cleaner gas, wind and solar energy sources have replaced coal. But much of the nations electricity is still generated by burning gas and coal, and to build and connect new sources of renewable power to antiquated grids. There are people who say this is impossible, and people who say this isnt challenging at all, said Ben Haley, an energy expert and co-founder of Evolved Energy Research. Id say its somewhere in between: Its challenging, but its not impossible. Current Electricity Use 2050 Net Zero Pathway Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021 Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario Medium-duty trucks Heavy-duty trucks Buses and rail Other Heavy-duty trucks Shipping 2% < 0.1% Buses and rail Shipping Medium-duty trucks Passenger vehicles 89% electric Passenger vehicles Aviation <1% electric Aviation Other Less total energy use in 2021 Current Electricity Use Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021 Heavy-duty trucks Buses and rail Other 2% <0.1% Medium- duty trucks Shipping Passenger vehicles <1% electric Aviation 0% 2050 Net Zero Pathway Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario Medium-duty trucks Heavy-duty trucks Shipping Buses and rail Passenger vehicles 89% electric Aviation Other Less total energy use in 2021 Americas transportation system, which includes everything from cars to boats to airplanes, still runs almost entirely on fuels derived from oil. Only a tiny fraction of cars and trucks today are electric. Passenger vehicles are widely considered the most feasible to electrify as battery-powered cars, S.U.V.s and pickup trucks enter the mainstream, though remain major hurdles. By contrast, heavy-duty trucks that carry goods thousands of miles cross-country , particularly if they require large batteries that take hours to charge. Some truck makers like Daimler and Volvo have said that a better alternative would be hydrogen fuel made from wind or solar power, though that would require extensive new infrastructure to make and distribute all that hydrogen. Batteries are in the lead right now, especially since we already have a charging network being built, said Tom Walker, the transportation technology manager at Clean Air Task Force, a nonprofit environmental group. But its not clear that electrification will make the most sense everywhere, so we should keep our options open. Aviation is even tougher. Todays batteries are too bulky to power all but the smallest planes. For longer flights and bigger jets, airlines may , such as fuels made from agricultural waste or more elaborate fuels that recycle carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which are still extremely costly. Current Electricity Use 2050 Net Zero Pathway Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021 Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario Water heating Space heating 63% 36% Washing and dry. Water heating Air conditioning Space heating Refrigeration Washing and dry. 99% electric Air cond. Refrigeration Air conditioning 16% electric Water heating Other Refrigeration Air conditioning Residential Cooking Space heating Refrigeration Other 96% Lighting and electronics Lighting and elec. Water heating Commercial 63% Lighting and electronics Other 53% Cooking Cooking Other 86% 5% Less total energy use in Space heating Lighting and elec. Cooking 2021 Current Electricity Use Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021 36% Washing and drying Water heating Space heating 16% electric Refrig. Air cond. Residential Air cond. Cooking Refrigeration Water heating Commercial Lighting and electronics Other Other 5% 53% 86% Space heating Lighting and elec. Cooking 2050 Net Zero Pathway Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario Water heating Washing and drying Space heating 63% Air conditioning Refrig. Other Water heating Air cond. 99% Refrig. Space heating 96% Other Lighting and electronics Lighting and elec. Cooking Cooking Less total energy use in 2021 Most homes and businesses already use electricity to power air-conditioners, lights, refrigerators and other appliances. But millions of buildings also burn fossil fuels, mainly natural gas or fuel oil, to power furnaces, hot water heaters, stoves, ovens and clothes dryers, together producing 13 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Electric alternatives already exist for most gas appliances. Electric heat pumps, for instance, essentially act as two-way air-conditioners that can provide cooling in the summer and heating in the winter. Heat pump technology in recent years, with many models able to operate efficiently in subzero temperatures. But for many single-family homes or apartment buildings, the economics of switching from gas to electric heat , since natural gas is cheap. Some homes require costly upgrades to electric panels, or new ductwork. And while last years climate law offers subsidies for electric appliances, many contractors are still unfamiliar with heat pumps and . The gas industry against electrification policies. Every home is different and the costs of electrification can vary pretty widely, said Ryan Jones, a co-founder of Evolved Energy. Another potential challenge: Many electric grids today are set up to deal with power demand peaking in the summer, when air-conditioners run full blast. But if electric heating becomes widespread, utilities will have to figure out how to handle when, incidentally, there is less solar power available. (Currently, utilities stockpile vast quantities of natural gas underground for wintertime, which is much tougher to do with electricity.) Current Electricity Use 2050 Net Zero Pathway Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021 Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario Other Machinery and electronics Construction Other 27% Agriculture and forestry Construction Chemicals 13% 25% electric Wood, glass and plastic products Chemicals 7% electric Food and animal feed Wood, glass and plastic products Cement and lime Agriculture and forestry Food and animal feed Paper products Iron and steel Machinery and electronics Cement and lime 39% Paper products Iron and steel Less total energy use in 2021 Current Electricity Use Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021 Machinery and electronics Other Agriculture and forestry Construction 13% Chemicals 7% electric Wood, glass and plastic products Food and animal feed Cement and lime Paper products Iron and steel 2050 Net Zero Pathway Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario Other Construction 27% Chemicals Wood, glass and plastic products 25% electric Food and animal feed Cement and lime Agriculture and forestry Paper products Iron and steel Machinery and electronics 39% Less total energy use in 2021 American industries often need huge amounts of heat for a dizzying array of activities: creating steam, melting aluminum, tempering glass, processing sugar, even drying car parts. Today, much of this heat is created by burning natural gas or coal. In theory, many companies could instead generate heat using electricity. One by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found that about half of industrial energy use had high or medium potential for electrification, including production of aluminum, machinery, wood, rubber and some plastics. But that is often than generating heat by burning natural gas. Other industrial processes . Cement kilns and glass manufacturers, for instance, often need temperatures in excess of 2,500 degrees Fahrenheit. The chemical industry, a major source of emissions, often uses fossil fuels as a raw material for its products, with no easy substitute. Perhaps the biggest hurdle to electrifying industry is the lack of incentives. While the government offers tax credits for electric cars and home heat pumps, it has largely ignored the industrial sector, whose energy use is expected to keep growing in the coming decades. Many companies are wary of testing out new processes without government support. If we just waited around for another century, industry would probably move to electrification on its own, because its more efficient than burning things for heat, said Chris Bataille, a research fellow at the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy. But thats obviously not fast enough to meet our climate goals. Electrification would require sweeping changes to the nations power grids. Under the scenario visualized above, total electricity demand in the United States would roughly double by 2050, even as overall energy use went down. To meet that demand, electric utilities would need to add staggering amounts of new emissions-free power while making sure that all those newly electrified cars, homes and factories dont strain the system and cause blackouts. They would also have to construct large new power lines across the country, both to accommodate far-flung renewable projects and to improve the reliability of the grid. Yet transmission projects have become notoriously hard to build. And some experts that the clean energy transition will falter without them. If were going to rely on the grid for so much more of our daily life, then we better start planning now to make sure its a lot more resilient than it is today, said Susan Tierney, an energy consultant with the Analysis Group. Its not a small concern. Last summer, amid a severe heat wave and electricity crunch, California to avoid charging their electric cars during peak hours. That raised questions about whether the grid could handle a surge of new demand at a time when climate change is already fueling extreme weather. There are potential solutions. Utilities, for instance, when electric vehicles and other appliances are charged, so that they dont all power up at the same time and strain equipment or require the construction of costly new power plants. More battery storage could help, too. Even so, some experts remain skeptical. To assume this will be the world we live in, in a few decades, is premature, said David Rapson, an economist at the University of California, Davis. He has said that rigid electric vehicle mandates such as those or may be too aggressive, potentially driving up costs and stifling other climate solutions. Others point out that electrifying everything or at least most things will have broad benefits, including deep cuts in air pollution. Matteo Muratori, an analyst at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, likened the transition from fossil fuels to electric to going from analog to digital. Theres a lot more you can do with electricity as a fuel, he said, more efficiency, less waste, avoiding pollution its not just about greenhouse gases. Projections for U.S. energy consumption in 2050 are based on the central scenario in modeling by Evolved Energy Research. It reflects one potential pathway to net-zero emissions by mid-century that includes high rates of electrification. If, however, electrifying the economy proves more difficult than expected, the researchers have laid out other net-zero scenarios that make greater use of other technologies such as hydrogen or biofuels but that also cost more. More information about Evolved Energy Researchs modeling is available in its . Current U.S. energy and electricity consumption is based on data from the Energy Information Administrations 2022 Annual Energy Outlook that has been modified by Evolved Energy Research. It reflects only energy consumed by end users and doesnt include upstream uses, such as energy used to extract fossil fuels or refine oil into gasoline. For some sectors, such as chemicals, energy includes both fossil fuels that are burned for heat and power as well as fossil fuels that are used as feedstocks for industrial processes. In this analysis, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles arent counted as electric vehicles, and the air-conditioning category for commercial buildings includes ventilation.