Bad news for nervous fliers! Severe turbulence is set to get even WORSE thanks to climate change, scientists warn

It's every nervous flier's worst nightmare. And now scientists have warned that severe air turbulence is set to get even worse thanks to climate change. A warming atmosphere causes disturbances to the jet stream the narrow current of fastmoving air that planes fly along to get a speed boost. As a result, there will be more sudden changes in plane height, throwing people around the aircraft cabin, causing severe injuries . In their new paper, experts frpm the University of Reading warn of 'profound implications for aviation safety,' as turbulencerelated injuries become more common. 'Recent years have seen severe turbulence incidents causing serious injuries and, in some tragic cases, fatalities,' said Professor Paul Williams, study author. 'Pilots may need to keep seatbelt signs on longer and suspend cabin service more often during flights. 'But airlines will also need new technology to spot turbulence before it hits, protecting passengers as skies become more chaotic.' Experts already know global warming Because jet streams are driven by temperature differences, they are getting stronger and more wavy as Earth's atmosphere warms. However, longterm trends in jet stream behaviour and 'its role in turbulence in the context of remain underexplored', the experts say. To learn more, they used 26 of the latest global climate models to work out how warming temperatures will affect jet streams at typical aircraft cruising altitudes around 35,000 feet by 2100. They considered two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) modelling by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that shows different ways in which the world could change. In the moderate or 'middle of the road' scenario (known as SSP24.5), CO2 emissions hover around current levels before starting to fall midcentury, but do not reach netzero by 2100. In the more serious scenario (known as SSP58.5), CO2 emissions levels roughly double by 2050 and the average global temperature is a scorching 4.4C (7.9F) higher by 2100. Unsurprisingly, the worst effects occur for the highest greenhouse gas emissions scenario of SSP58.5, which experts routinely warn should be 'avoided at all costs'. The University of Reading team warn that changing jet streams create stronger 'wind shear' differences in wind speed at different heights. Wind shear can cause rapid changes in flying conditions, from altering trajectory to sudden losses in altitude. In the SSP24.5 scenario, wind shear will increase by 16 per cent by 2100, but in the SSP58.5 scenario, it will increase by 27 per cent. And the problem will affect both northern and southern hemispheres, meaning it won't matter what commercial route one is flying. The results, published in the , warn of 'an increasing predisposition for turbulence under climate change'. Optimizing flight paths based on a jet stream's position can help reduce travel time and fuel consumption, other studies have shown. But the increased risk of turbulence associated with instability along jet streams 'poses a significant challenge,' the team warn. 'This vulnerability is exacerbated when passengers and crew are unbuckled, further increasing the likelihood of turbulencerelated injuries,' they write. Previously, University of Reading research found severe . Tens of thousands of planes encounter severe turbulence every year, with an estimated cost to the global aviation sector of up to 826 million ($1 billion) from costs of injuries, structural damage to aircraft and flight delays. And it is not just a terrifying experience, but potentially fatal; last year, when his flight from London to Singapore encountered 'sudden, extreme turbulence', thought to be due to a heart attack triggered by the 'dramatic drop'. CAT is difficult to observe in advance of an aircraft's track using remote sensing methods and challenging for aviation meteorologists to forecast. 'Increased wind shear and reduced stability work together to create favourable conditions for clearair turbulence the invisible, sudden jolts that can shake aircraft without warning,' said study author Joana Medeiros, a PhD researcher at the University of Reading. 'Unlike turbulence caused by storms, clearair turbulence cannot be seen on radar, making it difficult for pilots to avoid.'