With new tech, the world can limit warming to 2C
OPINION: If climate change were a rugby match, we might conclude that it is a game of two halves. Reviewed at half-time, we see that important successes have been achieved but very difficult and urgent changes are still required. The positives and negatives are in a fragile balance. The prospect of a disastrous climate outcome remains real if some major barriers are not addressed. With the human population of the planet projected to exceed 11 billion by 2100 from its current level of about 7b, the impact of climate change on human populations threatens to be disastrous. It has been estimated that climate refugees could number 150 million . READ MORE: * Climate Explained: Could the world stop using fossils fuels today? * Climate Explained: Will the Covid-19 lockdown slow the effects of climate change? * Climate Explained: The carbon footprint of electric versus fossil cars An international consensus on the reality of climate change and its human origins across 40 countries has been well documented by The Pew Research Institute . Majorities in all countries in this survey agree that climate change is real and that it is caused mainly by human activities. Both NASA warming data and modelling of warming variables by Oxford University researchers have confirmed the human origins of climate change. The majority in New Zealand agreeing with the reality of climate change is about 80 per cent . About 250 international science organisations, including the American Association for the Advancement of Science, The Royal Society of the UK and the Royal Society of New Zealand, have endorsed this consensus. Five Nobel Prizes have been awarded in recent years for research on climate change. Therefore, the period for debate on the reality of climate change is now over and humanity must urgently find practical ways of remediating the worst impacts of the climate changes. The global advent of electric transportation will provide a major positive contribution towards eliminating greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and methane) and hazardous emissions (carcinogenic carbon particulates from diesel) from internal combustion vehicles. The UK Public Health organisation has recently reported that tens of thousands of deaths each year are linked to these two types of toxic emissions. It is not surprising, given these serious health risks, that governments have decided to ban purchase of internal combustion cars: Norway within three years, Germany within eight years and the UK within 15 years. The evolution in cars is well underway and will see internal combustion vehicles replaced progressively by electric-petrol hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, plug-in electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles and autonomous (driverless) electric vehicles. Most car manufacturers plan to discontinue internal combustion cars and shift to electric vehicles over the next few years. Several European countries are leading in the adoption of electric car technology including Norway (more than 50 per cent of its fleet), Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands. Tesla is now the largest car company on the planet in terms of investments, indicating where its investors see future growth. We are now also seeing the rapid development of electric planes, hydrogen fuel-cell electric trains and hydrogen fuel-cell vessels. The development of exceptionally efficient solar panels that are capable of directly splitting water into hydrogen (and oxygen) promises the availability of greener industrial hydrogen. This is likely to replace the older steam reforming process that produces industrial hydrogen but also carbon dioxide. The single most important emissions problem involves the increasing use of fossil fuels and especially the use of coal to drive industrial development in China and India, as well as in some other smaller economies. This has contributed to an approximately 50 per cent increase in global carbon dioxide emissions since 1990, with China and India exhibiting the fastest increases in emissions. At present, China and India have both assigned priority to coal over renewables. However, India has a defined plan for increasing the proportion of renewables over the next 15 years. China, which already has almost 100 nuclear power plants, plans to replace coal with nuclear energy (which does not produce greenhouse gases) over the coming decade and in doing so intends to become leading economy in the world in nuclear energy. Replacing coal by nuclear energy in China by itself should significantly reduce the ongoing global increase in carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, new small modular reactors capable of providing power for factories, hospitals and small towns (with populations of 20,000) may play a significant role in reducing emissions in North America and Europe. In any case, the output of coal power in the US has declined more than 25 per cent over the past four years, associated with strong growth in the renewables sector. Solar in the US now creates twice as many jobs as coal. The key concluding question: Can we limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius by 2050? The answer is probably positive, provided a number of global developments occur before 2040. In order of importance, these are: This task of restoring planet earth is half over and the stakes could not be greater for humanity. The most important task in the short-term will be to slow the massive ongoing release of carbon dioxide emissions globally and in order to succeed this will require exceptional international cooperation and commitment. Time is not on our side, but there are reasons for optimism! Ralph Cooney is an emeritus professor at the University of Auckland.