A climate for change: Napier flooding just a taste of what's to come
No single event is an indicator of the arrival of climate change, experts say, but the flooding in Napier is a taste of what's to come. This week Napier experienced its second wettest day in 150 years, and residents are dealing with devastating flooding. The drenching was more concentrated and targeted than expected, despite warnings alerting the region. Metservice communications meteorologist Lisa Murray said because warmer air could hold more water, these weather systems could pack more of a punch. READ MORE: * Rain breaks Hawke's Bay drought, but feed shortage remains * Hawke's Bay farmers enjoy two days of rain * Rain brings relief to Hawke's Bay farmers over weekend - but the drought isn't over yet The volume of water dumped on the city was partly thanks to the increase in global temperature, although slight, which had been warming our oceans and, therefore, the air above the country. One degree difference in sea surface temperature can have an impact on every weather system, Murray said. Napier experienced the overlap of two weather systems; the broad-scale weather system which brought rain, and the convection currents of another system which brought a risk of thunderstorms. Now and again, you have all the right ingredients. Climate change increased the chance of those ingredients being in the same place at the same time, Murray said, and more importantly, armed the systems with more water to throw about. Just last week, the Hawke's Bay Regional Council released a report predicting rare, extreme rainfall would become more severe, leading to more erosion in the hill country and damage to water supply and farmland. The report showed annual average temperatures were projected to rise between 0.5 and 1 degree Celsius by 2040, and between 1.5 and 3 deg by 2090, on top of the 1 deg increase over the last century. The damage was worsened because of the downfalls location, with the bulk of the water coming down over the city. NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll said predicting the epicentre of a downpour like Napiers was difficult, as information was mostly obtained in real-time. The events in Napier were similar to those in Whangarei in July. After a devastatingly dry summer, the region was hit with a 1-in-500 year drenching of rain, causing widespread flooding and damage to infrastructure, Noll said. After a blistering summer, Hawkes Bay was now experiencing the flip side of drought, with the dry earth unable to absorb the rain. Regional council principal scientist Dr Kathleen Kozyniak said they were expecting shorter, more concentrated periods of rain in years to come, and more periods of drought. We may be going from drought to flood, to drought, to flood. Drought was an area of major concern to the Hawkes Bay residents, a survey commissioned by the council found, released in late October. Around 90 per cent of locals believed climate change was already occurring. Two thirds of people wanted the council to do more, and around 55 per cent of those surveyed were prepared to pay more rates to enable it.