Why Auckland's transport billions might not move the climate change dial
OPINION: At first, I thought the intriguing new online calculator of how future transport projects will reduce Auckland's carbon emissions was broken. I clicked on all six major public transport projects, but did not notice any shift in the bar graph that measured how much closer, by 2030, Auckland would be to meeting its goal of halving emissions . Then I learned that was the point of the calculator. There was actually a shift - but only a small one. The message, which surprised some of the best minds in the business, is that building major public transport projects alone, is barely going to move the climate change dial . READ MORE: * Climate Change: Auckland Council toughens its emission target * Auckland's climate debate: 'It's not going to be pretty' * Aucklanders want bold action on climate change, middle-aged men less convinced * Climate Change: 20,000 Aucklanders exposed to flood risk this century How about doubling the use of public transport services? A blip. If you really want to reach those carbon emission goals, head for the slide where you can increase the proportion of electric cars in Auckland's fleet, of where the number of any kind of trips taken reduces. Think Covid-19 alert level 4, when a reduction of 80 per cent in Auckland's road traffic, saw much cleaner air registered by pollution monitoring. The results will jolt the current thinking that a big investment in public transport, cycling and walking, will make a big difference in Auckland's contribution to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Using the calculator, the only big movers are electrifying Auckland's fleet, and changing how we live and move around. The calculator at transport2030.org.nz has its origins in work done and promoted by Paul Winton, an investment consultant who has a PhD in engineering, through his 1Point5 Project . Winton set off to find the simplest path - the low-hanging fruit - to achieving the climate change goals that Auckland Council, the Government, and others have signed up to. Winton found the biggest gains would come from completely de-carbonising road transport by 2030. The formula particularly applies in Auckland where 35 per cent of emissions come from road transport, and where forest planting or cleaner dairy farming are not big options. Winton's advocacy reached consultancy MRCagney late last year, the country's biggest firm specialising in sustainable transport planning. MRCagney was sceptical about Winton's conclusion but dissected his thinking over the summer, rebuilt the modelling its own way and, to its surprise, came to the same conclusion. The calculator is its work, but the modelling lines up with that done by the 1point5 Project, which had backing from philanthropists and other supporters. The big question is: What now? What if tens of billions of dollars of proposed infrastructure such as light rail and the City Rail Link , are not, on their own, the answer? The argument is not that any particular project should not go ahead, rather that a bigger policy and practical focus is needed on how to more rapidly replace fossil-fuel-burning cars, trucks and buses. Also, that tougher love might be needed to reduce vehicle use, through road pricing, congestion charging or other discouragements. More and better public transport is needed, as is increased cycling and walking, but Winton and MRCagney's work says this alone will not organically shift people out of vehicles in sufficient numbers. Glass production and the Glenbrook Steel Mill are big individual contributors to Auckland's carbon footprint, and if they remain, transport will have cut its emissions by 70 per cent, to meet the city's goal to halve emissions by 2030. The work by Winton and MRCagney is politically challenging, and is gaining exposure at a time when Auckland Council is preparing the start of climate actions, to head towards its ambitious emission goals. De-carbonising the fleet also requires Government action, and Winton has argued that greater public awareness is needed now of the scale of change required. Every month that diesel and petrol vehicles are added to the fleet, and new roads built for them, locks in for decades the very behaviour that they argue must change.