Public opinion may move surprisingly fast on climate change
OPINION: Extinction Rebellion's mounting civil disobedience and recent school strikes are two signs of increased public activism around climate change. Thursday's declaration of a 'climate emergency' by Environment Canterbury together with the Government's Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Bill show decision-makers are becoming increasingly focused on where public opinion is going on this issue. Will the steady stream of news such as this week's announcement that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have now reached an 800,000-year high create a further uptick in the level of public concern regarding the urgency and scope of climate action? Government, community and business leaders all need to factor in the possibility of such a major shift. In addition, entrepreneurs will be looking to see how fast public, and therefore consumers' and decision-makers', opinions change so they can identify potentially rewarding investment opportunities. Of course it can be hard to predict the speed at which public opinion may change, but the British Met Office has recently predicted the world is going to be exceptionally hot over the next five years. In fact, it says there is a 10 per cent chance the average global temperature may temporarily spike over the 1.5C threshold level that is raising concern. The fact is research shows the hotter the weather becomes, the more worried the public gets about climate change. If the Met Office is right, the sequences of hot days, fires, floods and storms will mount, which is likely to start focusing the minds of the average Joe and Jane in the street. At the moment people I talk to seem mainly focused on reducing future greenhouse gas emissions. But what might happen if many become convinced we need to do more we need to also focus on actually reducing the amount of CO2 in the air, not just stopping it increasing so fast? READ MORE: * Climate change: UN chief says 'total disaster' if global warming not stopped * How to start a climate change movement - tips from a fossil fuel CEO * The year in which climate change gained momentum In the middle of one of those hot spells predicted by the Met Office, an imagined conversation between the public and climate scientists might go something like: "OK climate scientists, you have been talking about climate change for a while now but we have not always paid close attention. But the recent stream of weather events are now starting to make us sweat - literally. Is it right if we summarise what you have been trying to tell us like this? "While it's often hard to attribute a single weather event to climate change, the current changes we are seeing - unusual heat, fires, floods, storms - are all consistent with the early effects of dramatic climate change. These will definitely worsen because more heat is already baked into the climate system because of absorbed heat that has not yet come out. In addition, if we continue emitting any more CO2 into the atmosphere, we are going to make it even worse. Also, there may be tipping points out there that could spark some sort of runaway climate change but you do not currently have a good fix on the temperature rise that could trigger them, or how far we are away from these. "So we know that the initial taste of climate change we are now experiencing is going to get worse. Given that, shouldn't we already be thinking in terms of attempting to not only reduce our ongoing emissions, but also, as soon as possible, to be sucking CO2 directly out of the atmosphere through massive tree planting or new technological solutions? And shouldn't we continue to do this until we get to a level where you feel you can give us the 'all clear' that there is very little risk of us crossing any tipping points? Isn't this what we would do in any other risk management situation?" The climate scientists are likely to reply: "Yes, you have it basically right. We can't give you any definite assurances regarding where those tipping points are. If this concerns you, as it does a number of us, you need to communicate your concern. "You live in a democracy. Regardless of your leaders' personal views, they can only act decisively if you pressure them to do so. You need to convince them, whatever party they represent, that you will support them in taking the level of action required to responsibly manage the scale of the potential risk to yourselves, your children and your grandchildren's future. "You also need to convince business leaders that they need to act more responsibly while at the same time you need to encourage entrepreneurs to take the risks that need to be taken so sufficient investment flows into reducing the risk of, or managing the impact of, climate change. "If it ends up with things not panning out as dramatically as we currently believe they might, we as climate scientists will immediately tell you and you can ease off. But until then, you need to have your foot hard to the floor on this issue if you don't want to risk leaving it too late to act." If over the next five years Joe and Jane public are spooked by the playing out of the UK Met Office's temperature predictions, public opinion may move surprisingly fast on this issue. If so, Extinction Rebellion and global school strikes might be just the beginning. If public opinion does move fast, politicians, other leaders and businesses may find themselves having to quickly convince impatient voters and consumers they are deadly serious about climate change. At that point, those leaders not with the programme are likely to be left behind. Dr Paul Duignan is an honorary research fellow at Massey University, a psychologist, outcomes measurement specialist and tech entrepreneur. http://parkerduignan.com/pwd