Why National took so long to pick Judith Collins
OPINION: Whenever you ask Judith Collins about Jacinda Ardern, she says one thing: Dont underestimate her like the Labour Party used to. Its typical Collins to barb a compliment for Ardern with an insult to the Labour party. But its also a message for her own party. Collins has been around since 2002, and has never hidden her desire for the leadership, which she finally clutched in her third official attempt on this week. Since taking it on Collins has consolidated power, kept a reasonable balance in her reshuffle, and is today launching a policy likely to set the political conversation for days: Charging returning New Zealanders $3000 for their isolation. She has displayed the kind of political instincts you learn over a long career full of bumps. She can cauterise when it makes sense to see her swift work on Michael Woodhouse over the Michelle Boag affair and then waves off with a joke issues she knows there is no good political answer on. Its fair enough for her to ask her colleagues what took so long. Some people inside and outside of the party see Collins as the ultimate nuclear pick: An option you only take when you have no one else on the table. Collins may be popular with the base, they reason, but middle New Zealand doesnt want someone this hard-right, someone willing to tweet to a fake news story about paedophilia laws in France or attack the first young couple to buy a KiwiBuild home . Thats even before you get to the fact that Collins was the source of more headaches for John Key than any of his other ministers, through Oravida and her relationship with attack blogger Cameron Slater, problems that appeared be own-goals inflicted by someone who loved politics for the sake of politics, and got bored with just being a minister. If you see Collins through that lens, then the reason it took so long is obvious: With the self-implosion of the untested Todd Muller, the departure of many other top MPs, and the non-possibility of picking Simon Bridges again, she was the best of a bunch of bad options. Collins herself had an answer for why she was not leader when asked at the end of last month on her publicity round for her new book: She said she wasnt willing to make the compromises necessary. This might read as some kind of ideological rigidity, but it is also about alliances. Collins never really corralled a significant section of the caucus behind her, or allied herself properly with a wing of the party. You need that kind of support if you want to mount a coup, as Muller did, or even win a clean contest like Bridges managed. Given her relatively bloodless ascension its easy to compare Collins rise with Arderns. But Ardern ran unopposed. And after she took over the leaking from her party really did stop. That has not been the case with Collins yet, but if she starts getting a head of steam in the polls that could change a bit. There are many figures you can compare Collins to: Margaret Thatcher if you like her, David Cunliffe if you dont. What she is much closer to is Don Brash: A leader extremely keen to differentiate his party from the Government, and not afraid to tap into third rail issues like race to do so. The electorate rejected Brash, but only just.