The fight against climate change requires action not just words
IT IS TRADITIONAL, after a major UN climate summit, for the momentum behind climate policy to enter a lull. It happens most noticeably in years after annual summits that had created a lot of pre-conference fanfare and expectations that were almost impossible to fulfil. This was the case in 2010, after the disastrous COP15 summit in Copenhagen the previous December had promised a new global climate treaty and delivered a devastating postponement. Regardless of the aftertaste left by COP26, which took place in November 2021 in Glasgow, 2022 will not have that luxury. In the first three months of the year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will publish its next two major reviews of climate science, detailing the latest findings on the ways in which societies and ecosystems are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and the measures needed to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. Together, the two reports will only serve to underline the urgency of cementing the national climate goals that were presented in Glasgow with national policies. Expect the first report to give details of how much climate change is already affecting lives in both rich and poor countries. This will underline how important it is to limit global warming to no more than 1.5C above pre-industrial average, in line with the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris agreement. The second report is likely to show just how challenging that will be. Cutting emissions quickly and deeply enough to limit global warming to 1.5C means total future human emissions cannot exceed 400bn-450bn tonnesroughly a decade of emissions at current annual rates. It is unfortunate but predictable that the promises made in Glasgow will not be sufficient to meet that goal. As a result, in 2022 there will be considerable pressure on governments and the private sector to keep their foot on the (decarbonised) accelerator pedal. Implementation is the buzzword, referring to the real, measurable efforts that countries and companies are, or are not, making in order to meet their promises to reduce emissions or reach net-zero within a certain timeframe. One concern is that the energy spike which began in the second half of 2021, and the resulting fears of the elderly freezing during the winter, will put a chill on the resolve of weary politicians. The milestone [for 2022] is this, says Li Suo, a policy analyst for Greenpeace East Asia. By June 2022 can we see three new policies or actions that make the new targets achievable? As more and more companies adopt net-zero goals, there will be a push for better data and more transparency to ensure that progress towards decarbonisation is genuine. The American Securities and Exchange Commission is likely to introduce rules forcing firms to reveal how climate change, and efforts to fight it, will affect their business. Other regulatory bodies, including those within the European Union, are mulling more stringent rules on disclosure. As voluntary carbon markets expand, guidelines must be established so that, for instance, an asset is actually an asset and can be discoverable either by an eye in the sky or machine learning, says Rachel Kyte, dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, who is a veteran of climate negotiations. Lurking in the background is the next stick, though a soft one, that the Paris agreement offers, in order to encourage emissions reduction. Parties to the agreement signed up to a global stock-taking exercise, under which they must demonstrate the progress they have made towards meeting their national goals. Data-gathering for the first stock-take begins in 2022. Time to start implementing. Catherine Brahic: Environment editor, The Economist This article appeared in the International section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2022 under the headline The hard part