Here’s How Much Hotter Than Normal This June Has Been
64 June 11, 2023 62 2022 60 1979-2021 58 Global Daily Average Air Temperatures 56 54 52 50 Jan. 1 Mar. 1 May 1 July 1 Sep. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. 31 Global Daily Average Air Temperatures 64 June 11, 2023 62 2022 60 1979-2021 58 56 54 52 50 Jan. 1 Dec. 31 64 June 11, 2023 62 2022 1979-2021 60 58 Global Daily Average Air Temperatures 56 54 52 50 Jan. 1 Mar. 1 May 1 July 1 Sep. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. 31 Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System | Note: Forecast models are available from 1979. Temperatures around the world this month have been at their highest levels in decades for this time of year. The spike reflects two factors that are shaping what forecasters say could be a for the planet: humans continued emissions of heat-trapping gases and the return, after three years, of the natural climate pattern known as El Nino. Both factors are also setting the thermodynamic stage for more-severe hot spells, droughts, wildfires and even hurricanes, which acquire their destructive energy from heat in the oceans. The short version is: Expect surprises, Rick Spinrad, the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said in an interview on Monday. Were putting heat into the system through climate change, through the greenhouse effect and that heat is going to manifest. That energy is going to manifest in any number of different ways. In recent weeks, it has manifested in Canada, where many areas are still dealing with that have churned toxic smoke into the United States. It has manifested in Siberia, which has been roasted by , and around Antarctica, where the extent of the surrounding sea ice last month reached a . Average temperature difference for June 1-10, 2023 compared with a 1979-2000 baseline 12F 6 0 +6 +12 +16 12F 6 0 +6 +12 +16 12F 6 0 +6 +12 +16 Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System occur when the water at the surface of the central and eastern Pacific around the Equator is warmer than usual. The intermittent phenomenon influences weather dynamics worldwide and tends to be associated with warmer years globally. But humans have pumped three additional years worth of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere since the last El Nino. That means the current one has emerged amid planetary conditions that could compound its warming effects. This pile-on has also made it trickier for NOAA to forecast the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, Dr. Spinrad said. El Nino tends to reduce hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, or the changes in wind speed and direction that can disrupt storms as they form. But the record warmth recently in parts of the North Atlantic could have an opposing effect by fueling stronger hurricanes. said there was a 40 percent chance that this years hurricane season would be near normal. But it also assigned 30 percent probabilities to the seasons being above or below normal. Where we may have had uncertainty in the past, were going to have larger uncertainty, Dr. Spinrad said. Theres another factor that could also have made the world hotter recently, though its not clear how much. In January 2022, a beneath the Pacific archipelago nation of Tonga blasted a huge amount of vaporized seawater into the atmosphere: at least 55 million tons, according to research . Like carbon dioxide, water vapor is a greenhouse gas: It traps heat near Earths surface. The plume from last years eruption may have increased the amount of water in the global stratosphere by more than 5 percent, the researchers said. The weathers natural variability is always causing swings, both warm and cool, between years and in specific regions. But human-driven warming remains the long-term trend, said Daniel L. Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. We are still moving in a pretty alarming direction overall when it comes to warming, Dr. Swain said. There still hasnt been a great deal of momentum away from that.