How to Prepare for a Hot Summer
Experts are predicting a warmer-than-usual summer for many Americans. This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here. As my colleague Matteo Wong noted earlier this month, a hotter-than-usual summer may await many Americans. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations temperature and precipitation outlook for June through August shows a significant chance of above-normal temperatures across much of the country. I spoke with NOAA experts about how these predictions are made, what to expect in the weeks and months to come, and how to stay safe in extreme heat. First, here are three new stories from The Atlantic : What kind of summer do we potentially have in store in the United States? How should Americans interpret these weather predictions? Johnna M. Infanti, a scientist at NOAA who was the forecaster for the June-July-August Climate Prediction Center outlook released this past month, told me that generally, what were seeing is a pattern that favors above-normal temperatures for much of the country. But our outlooks really speak to the probability that the average temperature will be above normal . It doesnt really indicate whether or not these temperatures will be extreme or set any records. We take the average of temperatures for the June-July-August period from 1991 to 2020, and our models give us an indication of whether we should expect the upcoming summer to be warmer or cooler or dryer or wetter than the average, she explained. Morgan Zabow, the community heat and health information coordinator at NOAA, added that the likelihood of above-normal temperatures is expressed in percentages, which doesnt tell us exactly what temperatures to expect but gives us an idea of what could be coming in different geographical areas. A temperature outlook like this really helps your decision makersyour city planners, your public-health officials, emergency respondersbe a little bit more aware of what this could mean, Zabow told me. An increased risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths that disproportionately affect children under 5 and older adults, people experiencing homelessness, athletes, and so many other populations. So how do these predictions get made? Infanti told me that her team uses dynamical climate models basically, computer models of what we might expect in the upcoming season based on the current state of the atmosphere, land, and ocean. They then show predictions for the temperature and precipitation for the next season. We also look at things like long-term decadal trends, she said. For example, if a region has seen increasing temperatures over the last 10 years, thats something we would take into consideration. Wed also look at sea-surface temperatures, both along the coast and globally if theres something like an El Nino happening. How much of a role will El Nino play in shaping the climate of the coming months ? First, an explanation of how the phenomenon works: El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean, Infanti said. And that natural climate pattern swings back and forth every three to seven years on average. We just ended a period of La Nina in the tropical Pacific, which means cooler-than-average temperatures across the tropical Pacific. Next, Infanti and her colleagues predict that we will enter an El Nino phase, which means that the conditions in the tropical Pacific are favorable for the development of El Nino conditions within the next few months, bringing warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures that can cause local changes in convection patterns over that region. And that sets off a kind of a chain reactionwe call them teleconnectionsacross most of the globe. But we wouldnt see related weather effects in the U.S. until the wintertime. Back to those above-normal temperatures: How does climate change factor into volatile weather patterns? With climate change, were seeing heat waves that are occurring more frequently. Theyre more intense, and theyre also lasting longer, plus the heat-wave season is increasing, Zabow said. A heat-wave season could have typically been just during the summer months, but now were starting to see it before the typical summer months and after what people would consider summer months too. What can people do to keep cool and safe? Extreme heat events can be very deadly, especially at the beginning of the heat season, because people arent acclimated to the heat yet, Zabow told me. Its important to note, though, that heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable. Its about taking simple measures, such as wearing a hat when youre outside or wearing light-colored clothing to reflect some of the heat, making sure that you are staying inside in a space that has access to air-conditioning. If you dont have access to air-conditioning at home, Zabow recommends finding a cooling centeryou might try a local mall or library, or a special designated cooling center in your area. She encourages Americans to check out heat.gov for more guidance on what to do before, during, and after heat waves. Related: Explore all of our newsletters here. Fans Expectations of Taylor Swift Are Chafing Against Reality By Spencer Kornhaber Three songs have been playing every night before Taylor Swift has taken the stage on her current tour , and each one seems to convey a different message. One track is Lesley Gores You Dont Own Me, a classic assertion of female independence. Another is Lady Gagas Applause, a pump-up jam in which a celebrity confesses her hunger for approval. Then theres Ice Spices In Ha Mood, a recent hip-hop song whose presence shows, among other things, that Swift is paying attention to whats hot in pop culturean important fact to keep in mind when evaluating the controversy now brewing around her. Ice Spice is a 23-year-old Bronx emcee whose whispery voice and puff of red hair have become internationally famous in a very short span of time, following the TikTok success of her August 2022 single Munch (Feelin U). She features on the new remix of Swifts track Karma, released last week, and this past weekend she joined Swift to perform the song at the singers three concerts in New Jersey. From a distance, the story feels familiar: Established star allies with rising star for mutual benefit. But the remix has unleashed a wave of indignation online, making Swift, not for the first time, a focal point for conflicting attitudes about what entertainers owe their audience. Read the full article. More From The Atlantic Read. Near Darwin, a new poem by Carl Dennis. Why turn from the table / To write a lament on the power of time / To undermine human effort when he can describe / How the work of worms helps sustain us? Watch. Happy Valley (on AMC+ and BBC America), which, according to our Culture writer, features the most compelling female character on television. Play our daily crossword. When we discussed the long-term temperature impact of climate change, Zabow, the NOAA heat and health information coordinator, pointed me to Climate Explorer , a web tool hosted by the National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center. Youre able to type in any county in the United States and see what the historical average temperatures were in the area, and then what the projections are, she told me. You could see how hot your neighborhood might be by 2050, or by 2090, depending on whether or not we implement emissions-reducing measures. Its a sobering yet useful climate-reality check. Kelli Katherine Hu contributed to this newsletter.