Climate change: CO2 emissions will fall by an estimated four to seven per cent this year
The level of CO2 emissions put into the atmosphere are expected to be between four and seven per cent lower this year, due to lockdown measures. In April alone, levels dropped by 17 per cent - but they began to return to normal when lockdown was eased and are still as high as they were in 2006. According to the UN World Meteorological Organisation 'United in Science' report on the state of the global climate - has continued unabated throughout the coronavirus pandemic despite a dramatic reduction in human activity. The report found climate change was racing ahead and there were global events to prove it - such as heatwaves in Siberia and melting ice sheets in Antarctica. The report warns that the world is not on track in efforts to limit global temperature rises to below 2.7F (1.5C) in order to forestall the worst impacts of climate change. Sustained cuts in pollution of at least seven per cent each year over the next decade are required to keep temperatures below the internationally agreed target. CO2 emissions have declined in 2020 due to reduced economic activity linked to Covid-19, researchers say, but it has not had any reduction in the total amount of CO2 present in the Earth's atmosphere. There is a one in four chance that temperature will rise above 2.7F at least one year over the next five years, according to Pep Canadell, one of the report's authors. 'That is, in less than eight years since the Paris Agreement entered into force we might be touching that first critical threshold of [2.7F], which 189 countries committed not to cross,' he said. Concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which drive warming of the planet, continued to increase in 2019 and 2020. And the years from 2016 to 2020 were the hottest five-year period on record. Arctic sea ice is shrinking, global sea level rises are speeding up and extreme weather events are causing major impacts. In the five years from 2020 to 2024 there is a 24 per cent chance of at least one year seeing global temperatures exceeding the threshold of 2.7F above pre-industrial levels, the report warns. These changes will have a catastrophic impact on human populations, according to Eva Plaganyi, a research scientist from CSIRO. 'Globally, we are wholly unprepared for higher temperatures, more drought and floods, melting ice sheets and rising sea levels threatening coastal and island communities such as Torres Strait Islanders,' she said. 'The COVID-19 pandemic has been tough on everyone but should be a wake-up call that future planetary shocks are best avoided through urgent global co-ordinated action, particularly to reduce the Emissions Gap. 'The report makes clear that although there were some declines in CO2 emissions due to reduced economic activity, we need sustained reductions to help close the gap.' 'If we are to limit warming to [2.7F], global emissions need to halve in each of the coming decades,' explained Jonathan Symons, an international relations expert. 'Instead, in 2019, global emissions from fossil fuels increased slightly. A small decline in emissions from coal was offset by increased combustion of natural gas and oil. Symons says if current trends continue we will soon be debating 'drastic and risky' interventions to stabilise the cliamte such as solar geoengineering. In a foreword to the report, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said it showed that short term lockdowns were no substitute for the sustained action needed. 'This has been an unprecedented year for people and planet. The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted lives worldwide,' Guterres wrote. He said our planet had continued warming up at a pace and climate disruption is getting worse - proving long-term and clear transitions are needed. 'We must turn the recovery from the pandemic into a real opportunity to build a better future,' he urged governments. Ed Blockley, the Met Offices polar climate science manager, said September 2020 was the second time in the modern record arctic sea ice had dropped below 2.5 million square miles. 'This is a shocking threshold which has been crossed because this summer has seen several periods of very rapid sea ice loss linked, in part, to the record-breaking heatwave in Siberia,' Blockley said. 'The Arctic is one of the most vulnerable regions on Earth to climate change and warming here will have consequences both for the region and the planet as a whole.' Dr Thomas Mortlock from Risk Frontiers, not involved in this study, said even if we could elminate all CO2 emissions tomorrow the effects on global temperatures wouldn't be felt for at least a decade due to 'inertia in the climate system'. 'For this reason, we need to be considering climate change in investment decisions today because it is 'baked in' for the coming decades at least,' he said. World Meteorological Organisation secretary-general Professor Petteri Taalas said greenhouse gas concentrations - already at the highest level in millions of years - continued to rise throughout the pandemic. 'Meanwhile, large swathes of Siberia have seen a prolonged and remarkable heatwave during the first half of 2020, which would have been very unlikely without anthropogenic climate change.= 'This report shows that whilst many aspects of our lives have been disrupted in 2020, climate change has continued unabated,' he said.