Climate change will create larger and more frequent extreme waves, scientists warn
Scientists warn that if global emissions are not curbed parts of the world will experience larger and more frequent extreme waves over the next 80 years. Using thousands of modeled ocean wave extremes from the past century, along with two alternative greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the team found the frequency of these events could increase by 10 percent. A warming world is creating stronger storm winds that are triggering the massive waves and as a result, the 100-year events may begin to occur every 50 or even 20 years instead. Extreme waves can reach heights of 65 feet, which is as high as a stack of four double-decker buses, and would affect 60 percent of the world's coastline - primarily the Southern Ocean. The stark warning comes from a team at the University of Melbourne, who shared in a : Our new research suggests that by the end of the century the magnitude of extreme wave events will have increased by up to 10 percent over extensive ocean regions, and the frequency of storms that generate extreme waves will have increased by five to 10 per year. This may not sound like a big increase, but it means that almost 60 percent of the worlds coastline will experience larger and more frequent extreme waves. Researchers also make note of the 290 million people that live below the 100-year flood level, which is an area that has at least one percent probability of flooding every year. An increase in the risk of extreme wave events may be catastrophic, as larger and more frequent storms will cause more flooding and coastline erosion, reads the blog post by the researchers. The team used data from thousands of modeled ocean wave extremes that they collected over the past century. The extremes came from global wave models based on wind forces generated from seven different global climate models. These were then compared to two alternative greenhouse gas emission scenarios - one where emissions are quickly rising and the other they are curbed. Not only did the results show a 10 percent in extreme wave frequency, but the largest increase of wave size and most occurring was found in the Southern Ocean, which will have an impact on most Pacific coastlines. 'Importantly, the unique approach we have applied means that we can estimate future wave extremes with a higher confidence than previously possible., shares teh team. 'Our analysis considers the whole globe, but the impacts of tropical cyclones on future wave heights arent well understood yet and are an area of ongoing study.'