World is on track for 'at least' 4.32°F global warming
The world is still heading for at least 4.32F (2.4C) global warming despite pledges made at the COP26 climate summit, a new report has warned. That would be far greater than the 2.7F (1.5C) temperature rise world leaders are targeting to limit the most dangerous effects of climate change. The prediction comes from analysis by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) initiative, which looked at promises made by governments before and during COP26, and found the climate summit Some 140 countries covering 90 per cent of global emissions have announced long-term targets to reach net zero but CAT said that only a handful have plans in place to reach the goal. When governments' actual policies rather than pledges are analysed, the world's projected warming is 4.86F (2.7C) by 2100, CAT added, casting a 'long and dark shadow of doubt over the net zero goals'. The analysis also warns that emissions-cutting action pledged up to 2030 will leave global greenhouse gases around twice as high by the end of the decade as what is needed to be heading for the 2.7F (1.5C) limit leaving the world on track for 4.32F (2.4C) of warming. 'This new calculation is like a telescope trained on an asteroid heading for Earth,' said Greenpeace International's executive director Jennifer Morgan. 'It's a devastating report that in any sane world would cause governments in Glasgow to immediately set aside their differences and work with uncompromising vigour for a deal to save our common future.' Countries were required to submit new, more ambitious 2030 targets in the run-up to Glasgow to get the world on track to limit dangerous warming. But the analysis suggests these are still inadequate reducing the gap between what is needed and what is planned to cut emissions in 2030 by only 15-17 per cent. The current 'appalling outlook' is being driven by continuing use of coal despite warnings the fossil fuel must be phased out in more advanced economies by 2030 and globally by 2040 and gas, which has seen use increase since the Paris Agreement. It does, however, claim that warming could be curbed to 3.78F (2.1C) under an optimistic scenario which includes long-term goals from some countries that are binding or submitted to the UN process, mainly the US 2050 net zero goal and China's 2060 carbon neutrality target. The Glasgow talks have seen a slew of announcements on sectors such as cutting methane and halting deforestation, which the analysis says supports important action, but must go beyond existing national targets to have an impact. Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, one of the partners in the analysis, said: 'The vast majority of 2030 actions and targets are inconsistent with net zero goals: there's a nearly one degree gap between government current policies and their net zero goals. 'It's all very well for leaders to claim they have a net zero target, but if they have no plans as to how to get there, and their 2030 targets are as low as so many of them are, then frankly, these net zero targets are just lip service to real climate action.' He added: 'Glasgow has a serious credibility gap.' Professor Niklas Hohne, of NewClimate Institute, the other Climate Action Tracker partner, said: 'While the wave of net zero targets appears like remarkable news, we can't sit back and relax. 'All countries must urgently look at what more they can do.' He added:: 'If the massive 2030 gap cannot be narrowed in Glasgow, governments must agree to come back next year, by COP27, with new and stronger targets. 'Today's leaders need to be held to account for this massive 2030 gap.' Responding to the report, campaigners and politicians said it showed the need for more dramatic action before 2025, when countries are due to set out their plans for post-2030 action. Greenpeace international executive director Jennifer Morgan described it as 'a devastating report' and called for countries in Glasgow to agree how they were going to com back next year and every year after that until the gap to 2.7F (1.5C) is closed. Shadow business secretary Ed Miliband said the report was an 'important reality check on the government's attempt to greenwash Glasgow' with claims of achievement in areas from coal to trees. COP26 president Alok Sharma said a number of different reports on the implications of action countries were taking were 'demonstrating that there has been some progress but clearly not enough'. He added: 'If we look at where we were heading before Paris (climate talks in 2015) the trajectory on some of the analysis suggested we were heading to 6C of global warming. 'Post-Paris, those commitments were taking us to below 4C, and now I think you see various reports that suggest we've bent the curve towards 2C. 'But of course that isn't good enough. What we've always said is that we want at this COP to be able to say with credibility that we're keeping 1.5C alive, 1.5C within reach. 'And that is what we're going to be working towards over the coming days.' COP26 is expected to finish this week.