Global warming could trigger ancient Indian Ocean El Niño-like climate pattern by 2100
could trigger an ancient El Nino-like pattern in the Indian Ocean that would create extreme weather such as floods, storms and droughts across the globe. El Nino is the name of a current recurring climate phenomenon across the tropical Pacific, which But a new one in the Indian Ocean could have devastating consequences. Scientists shared the stark warning after computer simulations showed the phenomenon could emerge by 2100, but if warming trends continue it could occur as early as 2050. Climate models produced simulations of what climate change would look like during the second half of the century if humans do not reduce greenhouse emissions. After adding global warming trends, the analysis revealed huge fluctuations in the Indian Oceans surface temperatures - similar to what happened 20,000 years ago. The study, conducted by the University of Texas in Austin, builds on previous research in 2019 that found evidence of a past Indian Ocean El Nino hiding in the shells of microscopic sea life, called forams, that lived 21,000 years agothe peak of the last ice age when the Earth was much cooler. Pedro DiNezio, a climate scientist at the University of Texas Institute, said: 'Our research shows that raising or lowering the average global temperature just a few degrees triggers the Indian Ocean to operate exactly the same as the other tropical oceans, with less uniform surface temperatures across the equator, more variable climate, and with its own El Nino.' In the recent study, Dinezio and his team used climate simulations to determine if an El Nino could occur in the Indian Ocean amid a warming world. The team created models that showed how climate change would look during the second half of the century. After adding global warming trends to the simulations, the team found that an Indian Ocean El Nino emerging by 2100 and as early as 2050 if humans continue to ignore climate change. 'Greenhouse warming is creating a planet that will be completely different from what we know today, or what we have known in the 20th century,' DiNezio said The latest findings add to a growing body of evidence that the Indian Ocean has potential to drive much stronger climate swings than it does today. Co-author Kaustubh Thirumalai, who led the study that discovered evidence of the ice age Indian Ocean El Nino, said that the way glacial conditions affected wind and ocean currents in the Indian Ocean in the past is similar to the way global warming affects them in the simulations. 'This means the present-day Indian Ocean might in fact be unusual,' said Thirumalai, who is an assistant professor at the University of Arizona. The Indian Ocean is currently experiencing slight year-to-year climate swings due to wings blowing west to east. However, the simulations suggest a warming world could reverse how the winds flow, which would destabilize the oceans and create a climate of warming and cooling - similar to the El Nino and La Nina weather patterns observed in the Pacific Ocean. The El Nino would create extreme climate patters across the globe. The phenomenon would also disrupt the monsoons over East Africa and Asia, which would be devastating to those living in the region who rely on regular annual rains for agriculture. Michael McPhaden, a physical oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, notes that human-made climate change could be most destructive for vulnerable populations. 'If greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trends, by the end of the century, extreme climate events will hit countries surrounding the Indian Ocean, such as Indonesia, Australia and East Africa with increasing intensity,' said McPhaden, who was not involved in the current study. 'Many developing countries in this region are at heightened risk to these kinds of extreme events even in the modern climate.'