Coronavirus lockdown will have hardly any long-term impact on climate change
Measures to slow the spread of that saw people stay home and use cars less will only have a 'negligible' long-term impact on , study finds. Researchers from the University of Leeds examined changes in greenhouse gas and pollutant levels between February and June, 2020 in 123 different countries. Pollutant levels did drop globally but the impact will only be short-lived, with temperatures only dropping by 0.02F even if lockdown lasted until the end of 2021. Leeds researchers say that if governments choose a strong green stimulus route out of the pandemic it could halve temperature rises expected by 2050 giving the world a chance to keep increases below the maximum 2.7F goal. Lockdowns to stop the spread of coronavirus caused huge falls in transport use, as well as reductions in industry and commercial operations. During the lockdowns this helped cut the greenhouse gases and pollutants caused by vehicles and other activities from the atmosphere globally. The team's findings show that carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and other emissions fell by between 10-30 per cent globally - but it only had a tiny impact long-term. If countries choose a 'strong' green stimulus route out of the pandemic it could halve the temperature rises expected by 2050, the study authors found. Keeping global temperature increases to more than 2.7F - as agreed under the Paris agreement - would prevent the most dangerous impacts of global warming. Recovery packages targeting low-carbon energy and energy efficiency and not giving bailouts for fossil fuels could 'mean the difference between success and failure' on avoiding dangerous climate change, the authors say. Study lead author Professor Piers Forster, started working on the analysis with his daughter Harriet after her A-levels were cancelled. They used mobility data from Google and Apple to calculate how 10 different greenhouse gases and pollutants changed between February and June in 123 countries, before a wider team helped with detailed analysis. 'Choices now could give us a strong chance of avoiding 0.3C of additional warming by mid-century, halving the expected warming under current policies,' said Forster. 'This could mean the difference between success and failure when it comes to avoiding dangerous climate change.' He added: 'The study also highlights the opportunities in lowering traffic pollution by encouraging low emissions vehicles, public transport and cycle lanes. 'The better air quality will immediately have important health effects - and it will immediately start cooling the climate.' The team also modelled options for post-lockdown action, ranging from a fossil-fuelled recovery to two different levels of green stimulus. Emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and other pollutants fell by between 10-30 per cent, the analysis said. But because the reduction was only temporary, the impact on warming driven by the long-term build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will be very small. It is what happens now that is important and what measures governments take to help economies recover, the researchers said. Dave Reay, an expert in climate change form the University of Edinburgh, said it normally takes years for estimates like this to see the light of day. 'Through ingenious use of mobility data from Google and Apple (and presumably an awful lot of home-based data crunching by the research team) this study gives the clearest picture yet on how Covid has impacted global emissions.' Strong action to drive the recovery through green measures could lead to greenhouse gas emissions being 50 per cent lower in 2030 than they would otherwise be, which would reduce expected warming by 0.54F by 2050. It could set the world on track to keep temperature rises to no more than 2.7F above pre-industrial levels and prevent the worst aspects of global warming. Beyond that threshold, scientists warn of increased droughts and extreme weather, spread of diseases, reduced crop yields, rising seas and harm to wildlife. Study co-author Harriet Forster, who has just completed her studies at Queen Margaret's School, said the actual effect of lockdown on climate change is small. 'The important thing to recognise is that we've been given a massive opportunity to boost the economy by investing in green industries - and this can make a huge difference to our future climate.' Mark Maslin, Professor of Climatology, University College London, who wasn't involved in the study, said restrictions were too short-lived for long-term impact. 'The study has a stark warning which is none of this will be possible if governments choose a recovery with fossil fuel stimulus,' Maslin said. 'This will make the Paris agreement targets nearly impossible and, as shown by the IEA report earlier this year, will create a slower, dirtier, and unsustainable recovery.' Pete Smith, Professor of Soils and Global Change at the University of Aberdeen, said all was not lost and this study proves the future is in the hands of governments. 'The study shows that if we try to reboot the economy by incentivising low-carbon technologies, businesses and jobs, we will have a chance of avoiding the worst excesses of future warming,' he said. 'But if we return to pre-COVID business-as-usual, we will have thrown away our best chance of getting the world on track to net zero emissions. We have a small window of opportunity to get this right, and we cant afford to waste it.' The findings have been published in the journal .