Climate change may kickstart dormant El Niño weather system in Indian Ocean | The Independent
Notifications can be managed in browser preferences. Small shifts in surface temperature could lead to weather patterns similar to the El Ninos currently experienced over the Pacific Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today. An El Nino-like weather system that has been dormant for millennia in the Indian Ocean could be kick-started due to climate change , according to new research. The study found small shifts in sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean could lead to weather patterns similar to the El Ninos currently experienced over the Pacific Ocean . The El Nino phenomenon is a broad, ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to periodic warm waters along the Equator across the central and eastern areas of the Pacific Ocean, according to the National Ocean Service. They typically occur every three to seven years and an episode can last up to two years. El Ninos can dramatically influence weather patterns around the world and cause both flooding and droughts, depending on the region. A study last year found that climate change has increased the frequency of extreme El Nino events in the Pacific region. The El Nino event that ended in 2016 caused mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, intense droughts across Africa, South America and regions of the Pacific and southeast Asia. Wildfires in Indonesia and Canada were also linked to it. The new study, published last week in Science Advances , found that raising or lowering the average global temperatures by just a few degrees may cause the Indian Ocean to behave in a similar way to other tropical oceans with its own El Nino. It could start to take effect within the next 30 years. The Indian Ocean previously experienced El Nino patterns more than 20,000 years ago during the last Ice Age. Climate scientist Pedro DiNezio, from the University of Texas at Austin who co-authored the study, told Earther : The re-emergence will depend strongly on the rate of global warming, so ultimately on whether greenhouse gas emissions are abated or not. We are certain that the risks of these extreme events is becoming larger and larger as we pump more CO2 into the atmosphere, and certainly going to have an unequal impact on countries in the tropics. The team of researchers analysed 36 different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) a collaboration by climate scientists aimed at improving knowledge of climate change. The team selected the models which match current conditions most accurately and then analysed how increased global warming might alter conditions for the Indian Ocean. According to the models, global warming could reverse the west-to-east winds in the Indian Ocean which currently keep conditions stable. If El Nino patterns emerge over the Indian Ocean, regions of Africa, Asia and Australasia, which are already vulnerable to the most extreme climate change impacts, may see an increase in storms, floods and droughts. Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies