Mackenzie region forecast to feel climate change heat
Summer temperatures in parts of the Mackenzie Country are predicted to climb over the next 70 years, according to a new climate change report for Environment Canterbury. Prepared by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, the 156-page report seeks to analyse projected climate changes for the Canterbury region with the Mackenzie region highlighted for a forecasted big rise in the number of hot days (above 25 degrees Celsius). "By 2090, expect 20 to 60 more hot days in most of Canterbury - if we don't cut emissions,'' an ECan summary of the report says. "Inland areas feel it the most, particularly the southern Mackenzie Basin, which could have 60 to 85 more hot days (each year)." The report states that "at present, hot days occur most regularly about Twizel. Here, the annual number of hot days averages 40-50 days per year." In line with the more hot days, the report predicts less frosts, snow and rain. "Changes to Canterburys future climate are likely to be significant. An increase in temperature and drought potential are among the main impacts," the report says. ECan says the report "looks at how aspects of our climate such as temperature, precipitation (rain, snow, drought potential), wind and sea levels might change between now and 2100. "It is based on global climate model simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment, scaled down for New Zealand, with a focus on Canterbury. "This is a technical report (not for the faint-hearted) but it is the most detailed information we have." The report looks at two scenarios - RCP4.5 (which could be realistic if immediate global action is taken towards mitigating climate change) and RCP8.5 (sometimes called 'business-as-usual', where emissions continue at today's rates). The report's overall projections for Canterbury point to the region's annual mean temperatures rising by 0.5 to 1.5 deg C by 2040 but 0.5 to 2.0 in 2090 if emissions are cut or rising 1.5 to 3.5 deg C if emissions are not cut. Other key projections include: Maximum daytime temperatures Minimum night-time temperatures Cold days (frosts) Rainfall Snow Drought Sea level rise