Fighting climate change is a marathon, not a sprint
If societies rapidly cut emissions today, we might not see the positive effects on global temperatures for decades, new research suggests. The world needs to mentally prepare itself for a long fight against climate change, the scientists warn. Although there has been a steady trend of rising temperatures across the globe, individual measurements have a natural flux or variability. Climate scientists call this noise. The peer-reviewed research, published in the journal Nature Communications , modelled how long it'd take before we could pick the signal of easing temperatures from this noise. READ MORE: * New Zealand's world-leading carbon cuts in coronavirus lockdown * The world endured 2 extra heatwave days per decade since 1950 but the worst is yet to come * Plantain shows potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions If the world vowed to keep global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius and cut emissions accordingly, wed have to wait for more than 10 years for our efforts to make a notable difference to temperatures, CICERO Centre researcher Dr Bjrn Samset said. It would take even longer to register if we focused on reducing just one type of emission, for example, carbon dioxide. Even heavy mitigation of this greenhouse gas could be visible by mid-century, but likely not before, the paper concluded. For nitrous oxide the gas produced when cow, sheep and deer urine enters soil major efforts today would only be noticeable in temperature data in the second half of the century. Samset said the natural movements of the ocean and atmosphere causes the temperature noise. The Pacific, for instance, has years with very hot and very cold surface waters, which in turn heat or cool the entire atmosphere like a radiator. Samset said the transition to a zero-carbon world would be a marathon, requiring a steady pace of emissions reductions. These reductions would translate into dropping levels of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, which would appear much sooner than the effect on temperature. These measurements would allow society to track our progress, he said. The fact that it may take some time for the effects to show up in terms of global temperature cannot be allowed to distract us, he added. Enthusiasm, I believe, will come when we see that the new, carbon-free solutions dont have to be worse than what we had. Hopefully we can reach a point where this feels like building an improved society. Kiwi psychologist Dr Emma Woodward has been studying how young climate activists maintain hope and determination. At times, these activists feel desolation, fear and overwhelm with the enormity of the task they have been handed in their lifetime, she said. Woodward suggests people spend time in nature to understand what were fighting for: Cultivate an appreciation of beauty and excellence this both nourishes and motivates. She also advises people pick achievable goals. Focusing on the enormity of the task leads to burn out and overwhelm focus on what you can do and do it well, then build on it, she added. At the same time, keep the focus on values rather than results for example recycling because you believe yourself to be a conscientious and respectful person, rather than recycling because you want to see some impact of your efforts, Woodward said. That action is more sustainable. By joining a community, people can achieve collective action and access support when motivation wanes. Its also important to pay attention to your mental wellbeing and take healthy action, from spending time with family and friends to practising gratitude, if you notice a downturn, she said. Hope is different to optimism. Optimism is the belief that things will somehow just work out OK in the end. Hope means that we continue take action, even in the most difficult times, Woodward said. It is now more than ever that we need to understand which factors support hope, and hopeful action, to both keep us mentally well and give us the best chance of positive collective action in light of the challenges we face.