How climate change could slash sheep and beef farm profits
Sheep and beef farmers profits could fall by more than half by the end of the century if climate change goes unchecked, new research suggests. The study, by the Deep South Challenge and Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research, drew on 70,000 tax returns and temperature and soil moisture data, uncovering a clear link between local weather and farm profits. Future climate change scenarios were then tested to understand how farm profits might be impacted by lower soil moisture and higher temperatures. Under a scenario with little climate action and high economic growth, sheep and beef farmers could see a profit loss of up to 54 per cent by the end of the century, researchers found. READ MORE: * Playing to our strengths in drought: Are we missing lucerne, the low hanging fruit? * Hot cows, less delicious wine: The problems food growers face with climate change * Research: Southland farmers must speed up adaptation to climate change * Here are three farmers who are taking action on climate change The figure, which was subject to a high degree of uncertainty, showed the vulnerability of sheep and beef farms to high temperatures and soil moisture loss. The impact of higher temperatures on dairy production was less clear. However, based on soil moisture changes alone, the industry could see a profit loss of 20 per cent by 2100. Manaaki Whenua research co-leader, Dr Kendon Bell, said the research could be used to better understand how climate change might encourage farmers and growers to adapt, or even change what they farm and where. Large capital investments made it difficult for farmers to change the way they used their land and the slow pace of climate change was unlikely to force their hands in the near future. But the research suggested land-use change should at least be on the cards in some places, Bell said. Given that animal agriculture is a major contributor to both climate change and water pollution, understanding the extent to which climate change might affect this baseline over time is important for policy considerations over the coming decades. However, whats important is the relative attractiveness of animal versus other land uses. To get a full understanding of how climate change might affect land-use, similar research would need to be conducted for all relevant land uses, not just those covered by this research, he said. Understanding the scale of the expected impacts of climate change across all sectors is key for central government when considering future budgets for adaptation support. If, as a hypothetical example, the scale of expected net damages to agriculture was 1 per cent of the expected net harm to human health, it would be difficult to justify putting 50 per cent of central governments adaptation budget into agriculture.