Understanding China's climate change goals
China is responsible for nearly 30 per cent of the worlds carbon emissions. What it does to curb those will be crucial in the battle to stop global heating. Last week the economic powerhouse moved ahead with a national carbon trading scheme as part of efforts to see emissions peak by 2030 , and for the country to be carbon-neutral by 2060. Lucy Craymer explains what the country is actually aiming for and what that means for the health of the globe. China is home to around 18 per cent of the worlds population and responsible for 28 per cent of global manufacturing. Its huge manufacturing sector, coal-fired power plants and steel and concrete production all emit gases that contribute to climate change . But in September last year, Chinas President Xi Jinping announced that China will boost its efforts to tackle climate change; that carbon dioxide emissions will peak before 2030; and the country will reach carbon neutrality before 2060. READ MORE: * US and China agree to cooperate on climate crisis with urgency * Climate Explained: Does a delay in COP26 climate talks hit our efforts to reduce carbon emissions? * China, the world's top emitter, aims to go carbon-neutral by 2060 The move was heralded as a huge step in global efforts to combat climate change, which historically have been led by developed richer countries. What China does matters more than anybody because they are the worlds largest emitter, says Dave Frame, director of the New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute at Victoria University. Lets start with the basics: planet-heating emissions, aka greenhouse gases, include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases. Carbon dioxide makes up the largest portion of these gases around 76 per cent, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency. It tends to enter the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels coal, natural gas, and oil and solid waste; and through some chemical reactions. In 2020, China produced an estimated 14,400 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), which is equal to the total annual emissions of nearly 180 of the worlds lowest-emitting countries combined, according to US-based independent research and analysis firm Rhodium Group. CO2e is the standard unit for measuring a countrys climate footprint and includes all the various types of greenhouse gases. New Zealand for its part is the 21st-worst greenhouse gas emitter per capita in the world and produces about 0.17 per cent of the worlds annual greenhouse gas emissions. This matters because carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are building up in the atmosphere, trapping additional heat and raising Earths average temperature. Climate change is causing sporadic extreme conditions such as severe winter storms and summer heat waves, and melting ice. There is no doubt that China is a huge contributor to the gases that are responsible for changing climate conditions, but per capita they are still tracking below many in the developed world. Rhodium Group says Chinas per capita emissions were 10.1 tonnes in 2019, which is slightly below the average levels of countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and significantly below the per capita level of the US. China, along with other developing countries that signed on to the Paris Agreement , does not face as stringent requirements to curb emissions as developed countries. The agreement asks that developed countries take the lead by undertaking absolute, economy-wide reduction targets, while developing countries just need to enhance their greenhouse gas-cutting efforts and are encouraged to move towards economy-wide targets. Beijing, for its part, argues that rich developed countries need to take more responsibility and spend more to help developing countries reduce their emissions. This argument is based in part on the fact that developed countries have had relatively higher greenhouse gas emissions over the last two centuries. Since 1750, members of the OECD have emitted four times more CO2 on a cumulative basis than China , according to Rhodium Group. President Xi announced China would aim to be carbon-neutral by 2060 . This means that the country will either reduce its carbon dioxide emissions or offset those to a neutral level by that year. In 2020, Chinas carbon dioxide emissions made up around 70 per cent of the countrys greenhouse gas tally and totalled an estimated 10,190 million tonnes, according to Rhodium Group. It is this gas that China is targetting, not other gases such as methane. Frame says there are a number of different interpretations of what being carbon-neutral means, depending on the country and how they are meeting their goals. Last time I looked I saw about a dozen different ways of putting it, he says. New Zealand, for example, plans to reduce all greenhouse gases to net zero by 2050, except biogenic methane emitted by plant and animal sources . These methane emissions made up nearly 40 per cent of New Zealands emissions in 2018, according to Government tallies . To reach carbon neutrality by 2060, China will need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 85 per cent of its 2020 levels, according to a repor t authored by Betty Wang, senior China economist at ANZ in Hong Kong. The report says that technology for carbon capture, utilisation and storage will also be needed if the country wants to meet its goal. Xi also added in that same speech that China would lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by over 65 per cent from the 2005 level; increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25 per cent; increase the forest stock by roughly 40 per cent from 2005 levels; and bring its total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts. In the release of Chinas 14th Five-Year-Plan earlier this year a comprehensive blueprint for Chinas overall economic and social development Beijing reaffirmed its aim that climate pollutants would continue to fall and that it would formulate a plan to reach peak carbon emissions before 2030. But Hill + Knowlton Strategies, a US consulting firm, says in a brief prepared for clients that even though there was a push towards clean and efficient coal use, the plan was disappointing for many climate activists, who were hoping for a transition away from coal, and a target for limiting total energy consumption. The plan does say that China will work on a strategy that will see carbon dioxide emissions peak in 2030 and Beijing has separately pledged to develop long-term strategies aimed at carbon neutrality before the climate summit in Glasgow at the end of the year. It is estimated that Chinas carbon emissions rose in 2020. This is in contrast to many countries, which saw their emissions fall due to the impact of Covid-19 on the transport and production sectors. However, Rhodium Group says China met its Copenhagen Accord pledges of reducing its carbon intensity as a proportion of GDP by 40-45 per cent of 2005 levels and increasing the share of non-fossil energy in its primary energy consumption to around 15 per cent. But it notes that the countrys continued emissions growth jeopardises its long-term Paris Agreement goals. Jorrit Gosens, a research fellow at the Centre for Climate and Energy Policy at the Australian National University, says that China's target of having emissions peak before 2030 is not particularly ambitious given efficiency improvements already seen in its energy sector. And the 2060 goal doesnt say much about what theyre going to do in the next five years, he says. But he notes that the 2060 goal is very ambitious. China last Wednesday announced details of its new carbon trading market. The first stage of the national emissions trading scheme will cover more than 2000 power plants, before being expanded to cover other sectors such as cement, steel and aluminium, said Zhao Yingmin, Chinas vice-minister for ecology and the environment, in a press conference that day. As in similar schemes globally, the companies will be allocated carbon credits that they can either use to cover their own emissions or sell on the market. If their emissions are higher than those allocated then they will have to buy credits to cover those. Gosens says China's slow introduction is similar to how countries such as in Europe brought their trading schemes in, allowing companies to adjust. The Chinese government is somewhat hesitant to ratchet up the ambition level with its system because theyre not completely sure how it will affect profitability, he adds. China's plan to be carbon neutral by 2060 is less ambitious than many other countries, although not relative to its wealth. The US, the worlds second largest emitter, the UK, and Japan, along with more than 110 countries, have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. However, the United Nations notes that this is not enough, as there have been no bold commitments yet to mobilise the finance necessary to achieve the net zero commitment by 2050, nor, more broadly, the UNs Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, India, one of the worlds largest emitters, has yet to pledge to go carbon neutral. Although Indias Prime Minister Narendra Modi did say at the end of 2019 at the Climate Ambition Summit that: We must accept that if we have to overcome a serious challenge like climate change, then what we are doing at the moment is just not enough. This statement is true for most countries.