Auckland's poorest to suffer most in climate change
Climate change means a quarter of Auckland's buildings will face flood risk and the city's poorest communities will be hit hardest, according to a ground-breaking assessment. Auckland's poorer southern suburbs will be hit not only by hotter, drier weather over the next century, but will have the least ability to adjust or escape the change. The wind will weaken, and change direction, bringing new pollution risks, while up to 2.5 per cent of the land area could be threatened by rising sea levels. The research by Auckland Council, presented at the city's Climate Change Conference, said while much remains unknown, some solutions are clear. READ MORE: * Climate change strike: Auckland principals threaten students with truancy * Climate change costs are hitting households through insurance premiums * New Zealand sea level rise: Councils' $8b climate change warning The work paints for the first time a picture of how a New Zealand city will be affected by climate change over the next century. It builds on research released last year by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), which showed the number of "hot days" above 25 degrees Celsius, could quadruple by 2110, accompanied by drier weather, but more extreme rainfall and extreme heat spells. The forecasts are based on life continuing much as it is now, with no major interventions, as the effect of those is unknown. The new research takes the forecast climate changes, and in a "risk assessment" looks at how they will play out across the city's varied urban and rural communities and landscapes. Those at most risk are the poorest southern communities in the local board areas of Mangere-Otahuhu, Otara-Papatoetoe, Manurewa and Papakura, and some in the west. By 2110 the southern communities will have 90 extra "hot days", 10-20 more than the Auckland average, and the make-up of the communities will heighten the impact. "The 10-15 extra hot days (and 25 in the south and north) are just over a decade away," said the council report. "It is unlikely that society will have the opportunity to adapt and acclimatise to these changes within this period without some intervention. "Extreme heat events can have a catastrophic effect on the population, particularly those that are chronically ill, socially marginalised or with reduced capacity to adapt." The report includes a Heat Vulnerability Index for Auckland, blending the nature of the local climate changes, with the ability to adapt or lessen the impact. Those most at risk from heat-related death are women, those living alone or without vehicles, ethnic minorities, low-income households and those with poor quality housing or chronic illness. Death and illness during high heat has been linked closely to those with underlying health conditions such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and chronic renal disease. Those factors are considered to put Maori and Pacific people at heightened risk. The vulnerability assessment doesn't include the role of "social infrastructure" in lessening the impact of extreme heat events, such as greenspaces, and community facilities as well as places of worship and cafes. The report says those amenities improve community cohesion, which helps the vulnerable. "Prioritising preservation and increase of greenspace in these areas could considerably improve the heat vulnerability of the population," the report noted. Overseas studies have found a link between low heat-related death and illness and areas with greater tree shade, and less "hard surface cover" such as concrete and paving. The report said building standards will need to improve. "If the building legislation remains unchanged under a changing climate, properties will be increasingly susceptible to overheat." Mayor Phil Goff told Stuff Auckland needs to do more to tackle climate change. Goff said while Auckland was committed to buying only non-polluting buses from 2025, individual behaviour needed to change "Pushing mode change in transport to get people onto non-polluting (electric) rail, light rail and busways where buses are electric or hydrogen-powered - we have got to totally change the way we live, in a more compact city," he said. Goff called for the Government to accelerate sales of electric vehicles, by offering subsidies. "For every one electric car, we're importing 64 diesel SUVs and in 20 years time those cars will still be on the road and still causing carbon emissions." Auckland Action Against Poverty co-ordinator Ricardo Menendez March said there was an "infrastructure deficit" in south Auckland which had created "geographical inequity". "What we have seen in our organisation, when there has been extreme weather events, the need to cover financial hardship due to deprivation of power or high electricity costs are greater," Menendez March said. "Councillors and Members of Parliament need to start redistributing funding to south Auckland if they are to address these injustices." AIR QUALITY AND SOCIETAL IMPACTS Risks related to the quality of the air Aucklanders breathe are expected to be magnified for the young and elderly, and poorer communities. The analysis points to what is already known about who is most affected by asthma, with the crossovers of concentrations of Maori and Pacific communities, those with poor quality housing, poor access to healthcare and higher unemployment. Those most likely to adapt to the impacts of worsening air pollution, are those well-off enough to be able to improve home ventilation, live away from high-polluting busy roads, and have clean heating as well as good access to healthcare. Auckland's mean annual temperature by 2110 is expected to rise by between 1.4C and 3.3C according to a 2018 study - less in the west, more in the east - and with the biggest change in autumn. On the upside, warmer winters will mean less need for heating and less pollution from woodburners. Frosts will become rare except for higher ground in the Waitakere and Hunua Ranges. The bad news is that humidity will rise, with more days in which the air feels oppressive. That could promote mould growth inside homes. There will be fewer rainy days, but more spells with rain of more than 40mm for consecutive days. The magnitude of the wettest days of the year is expected to increase, in the south east by more than 25 per cent. The change in the rain pattern could have a knock-on effect on air quality. "The regularity of rainfall was reported to be more important than rainfall intensity as a mechanism for removing atmospheric pollutants," said the analysis. Climate change has been found to be a prominent influence in increasing forest fires, such as those that occurred across Europe, Russia and North America in 2018. "Forest fires over the Waitakere Ranges would cause large plumes of carbonaceous particulate and gas to be emitted with the potential to seriously affect Auckland's air quality." LESS WIND, NEW DIRECTION Falling wind speed and a change in wind direction could remove protection Auckland has enjoyed from air pollution. "Auckland's air is diluted by a reliable south-westerly wind from the relatively unpolluted Southern Ocean - however this is predicted to change," said the analysis. Climate projections forecast increasing frequency of wind from the north-east. This would blend with a long established decline in the number of windy days Aucklanders experience. Over the past 50 years, the number of days where wind speeds top 10 metres a second has more than halved from 30 in 1966 to 11 in 2012. Lower wind speeds would carry less salt and fewer particulates across Auckland, but in localised areas would also be less effective in dispersing any pollution. More north-easterlies may also carry more emissions from shipping across the city. A 2017 study in Auckland found an increase in sulphur dioxide and heavy metals from the diesel fuel burned by ships, when north-easterlies blew. "These increases have been most evident close to the port in Auckland's densely populated city centre." Lower wind speeds could also allow more pollutants to build up, higher-up in the atmosphere. Even Auckland's planning rules enabling higher density housing and discouraging sprawl will have mixed impacts. The analysis found health could suffer from higher pollution if the focus on higher density housing in the existing area, supported by public transport, is not delivered. A possible flipside though is a 2018 study which found taller buildings can lift localised air pollution concentrations due to lower winds clearing the bad air. SEA LEVEL RISE AND BUILDINGS Three of the eight new reports will not be released for weeks, on key areas such as the impact on buildings, and the localised effects of sea level rise. A brief summary of the impact on the built environment shows 23 per cent of Auckland buildings, or 127,593, would be exposed to flood hazards, with 16,000 at risk of floor flooding in a one-in-100-year flood, with the city's paved surfaces and roads affecting the volume, speed and path of water in heavy rain. Sea level rise could hit up to 2.5 per cent of Auckland's land area, 80 per cent of coastal ecosystems and 6 per cent of dairying land. Council parks near shorelines will be threatened, amounting to as much as 7.5 per cent of council-owned green space. Underground utilities and transport routes especially near coasts are thought to be highly exposed. TERRESTRIAL SPECIES AND ECOSYSTEMS "Concern and uncertainty" is the headline remark in the analysis of effects on Auckland's flora and fauna . "The majority of studies do indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity. "However we have not identified any qualitative studies on how Auckland's indigenous species and ecosystems are likely to respond to the threats associated with climate change." One 2017 study found 42 per cent of 48 indigenous ecosystem types had at least one risk factor making them more susceptible to harm from climate change. That rose to 58 per cent if climate change accelerated the spread of kauri dieback and myrtle rust. By 2110 one study expected stream temperatures during Autumn could be 4 degrees higher, pushing some species closer to lethal limits, and accelerating growth rates of some aquatic plants, to perhaps nuisance level. Rising sea levels will hit coastal habitats, particularly areas such as mangrove stands, unable to migrate further up the shore. Auckland Council hopes that ideas that emerge from the three-day conference winding-up on Wednesday, will feed into its climate action plan due to go out for public consultation in the next months.