Climate change will bring more insects, pests and maybe tourists to Hawke's Bay - report
Climate change in Hawke's Bay and Gisborne will lead to fewer fruit and vegetables, more pests and probably more tourists, according to a soon-to-be-released report. The Climate change projections and impacts for Tairawhiti and Hawkes Bay by the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere was commissioned by the Hawke's Bay Regional Council and Gisborne District Council and will be made public on Monday. A paper before the Hawkes Bay Regional Council says the new report is the most up to date and comprehensive assessment of climate change risks to the region. NIWA used modelling from vthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including a mid-range emission and high emission model, to describe changes that could occur over the 21st Century. READ MORE: * Fresh water storage sites to be investigated in drought prone Hawke's Bay * Mackenzie region forecast to feel climate change heat * Hawke's Bay Regional Council consultation could see zero rates increase Annual average temperatures in the regions were expected to warm by 0.5 degrees Celsius and 1C by 2040 and between 1.5C and 3C by 2090, with the strongest warming occurring in autumn. In coastal areas, there will be five fewer frosty days by 2040 and about 30 fewer frosty days by 2090. In inland areas, there will be 20 fewer frosty days in 2040 and 50 fewer frosty days by 2090. Heat waves, defined as three or more days above 25C, will be increasingly common, with some expected to last 60 days by 2090. There will be up to five per cent less annual rainfall by 2040 and up to 15 per cent less by 2090. The potential for drought will increase substantially, and the amount of water flowing in rivers will decrease by up to 20 per cent by 2090. The coast will be affected by sea level rise. At present the mean high water spring level is exceeded by just 10 per cent of high tides. By 2090 it would be exceeded by every high tide. On top of all of this, there will be more pests and disease, and less and poorer quality fruit and vegetables. Higher rainfall will lead to increased erosion and damage to roads and water supplies, forestry, and agricultural land. On a brighter note, climate change brings a few potential opportunities such as increased pasture and plant productivity, provided there is enough water, due to the additional carbon dioxide, less frost damage and a boost to tourism and water-based activities during the longer summer. The air may get cleaner in winter due to a reduction in domestic fires, but could get worse in summer due to wildfires and an increase in windblown dust and allergenic pollen.