What does the Climate Change Commission's roadmap mean for our lives?
The Climate Change Commission has released its final advice to the Government, laying out a carbon-cutting roadmap that could change the way we live. From 2022 onwards, the commission wants us to meet a shrinking carbon budget, which is essentially the amount of greenhouse gas the country is allowed to spend each year. Our emissions grew in 2019 (our pollution went up, but we also changed the way we count them). If were racing to net zero, this means the starting line moved a bit further back. To compensate, the commission adjusted the distances (or legs) well need to run each year. So the annual carbon budgets have also risen in the commissions finalised report : 2022 to 2025: 69.5 million tonnes (67.7m tonnes in draft advice) 2026 to 2030: 59.7m tonnes (57.3m tonnes in draft) 2031 to 2035: 47.9m tonnes (44.6m tonnes in draft) But that finishing line of net zero by 2050 hasnt moved. Well have to cover a bit more ground in the first leg, though well have to make up for the majority of the extra distance in future legs. All up, we must knock 5.4m tonnes of emissions annually for the next four years, compared to 2019. READ MORE: * Farmers could pay two prices for greenhouse emissions * Stop coal mine extensions now, says influential energy report * The Climate Change Commission's model is under fire The cost of our transition a subject that generated a lot of debate has been refined. The draft advice found our GDP would grow at a slower rate, knocking off less than 1 per cent by 2050. Thats now 1.2 per cent by 2050. However, theres a higher cost if we drag our feet and delay buying electric cars or tackling farm emissions, the commission warned about 2.3 per cent of GDP. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the journey would be tough at times, but the numbers supported the countrys plan to decarbonise. Its a safer, smarter and cheaper choice to act now. The commission has no law-making powers, so the Government will need to decide whether to pass the plan into legislation. Ardern already pledged to uphold the budgets , though her ministers may tweak some of the proposals. Well find which ideas were thrown on the scrapheap when the Government releases an Emissions Reduction Plan in December. But if the Government chooses to back all aspects of the commissions roadmap, heres what it means for cars, homes, energy bills and farmers. Petrol and diesel car imports will be banned, ideally by 2030 but no later than 2035. Electric vehicles will be an increasingly common sight on our roads. Half of all cars and motorbikes entering the country will be plug-ins by 2029, courtesy of a feebate or subsidy ( the design of which is still to be announced ). By 2035, drivers who switch to electric will save more than $1300 each year. Electric charging stations will pop up on national and local roads. The Ministry of Transport has floated a petrol car ban in 2035 . Its not clear whether the ministry will bring the ban forward to better align with the commissions roadmap. Petrol will be mixed with an increasing proportion of biofuels. By 2035, 5 per cent of the petrol and diesel powering existing cars, trucks and planes will be sourced from organic matter, mixed in with fossil fuels. Cars will be replaced with more bikes, scooters, pedestrians, buses, trains and ferries. One in seven journeys will be taken using these low-carbon modes by 2035, under the commissions roadmap. Green transport campaigners were critical of a lack of ambition in the draft advice. For those who can, remote work will be common. Well also be less likely to own a car and more likely to subscribe to a car-share scheme. When urbanites do drive, they may pay a congestion charge. Well be more active and breathe cleaner air. Lower public transport fares for everyone. To boost demand, ferry, train and bus services will also be more frequent and reliable. Some goods shipped on trucks will move onto ships and rail lines. Ferries and cargo ships will be electrified, in the commissions roadmap. Domestic flights will be powered by electricity by 2030. The commission wants electric planes on short-haul routes such as Wellington to Nelson. Whats new? Electric planes by 2030 and electric ships after 2025 are significant additions. The commission wanted lower public transport fares for young people, now its asked for fare cuts across the board. The commission is now recommending the Government set its own targets to boost walking, cycling and public transport trips. Its possible an import ban on new fossil fuelled cars could kick in several years before used vehicles. Well blend a little bit more biofuel into our petrol and diesel supply (5 per cent, up from 3). Theres ever-so-slightly more urban trips on bikes and public transport. Theres a slight delay as to when electric car imports overtake petrol and diesel cars 2029, not 2027. The commission originally wanted to electrify the main rail lines, but its more open to other zero-carbon fuels ( such as biodiesel ) to power our long-distance trains. Gas appliances will be switched for electric (and wood). The commission believes electricity is an efficient green fuel source to power our homes , so it recommends the Government set a date after which homes or business can no longer hook up to the natural gas network 2025 is floated. The gas industry strongly opposed the proposal in the draft advice. The commission also wants the Government to start phasing out natural gas appliances in the 2030s. Natural gas, petrol and diesel will get more expensive. According to the commissions modelling, the rising cost of carbon pollution under the Emissions Trading Scheme will make it increasingly costly to buy these fossil fuels. The average natural gas bill could be $300 higher by 2035. Petrol prices are expected to rise by 30 cents per litre. Solar panels on homes will be common. Communities will also run small-scale wind and solar farms, to help generate the electricity we need for our homes and cars. New houses will be snugger, warmer and drier. By keeping our homes naturally comfortable, less energy will be required to heat them in winter and cool them in summer. Occupants will be healthier, and low-income households should enjoy cheaper energy bills. Neighbourhoods will become increasingly dense. New houses will be constructed on existing transport routes, giving more people access to buses, trains, ferries, cycleways and paths. Green bins will be commonplace. Our food and garden waste will be collected and composted, or sent to a landfill that captures the methane producing when organic matter rots. Whats new? The draft advice told the Government to halt hook-ups to the natural gas network by no later than 2025 and earlier if possible. After public backlash, the commission has left it up to the Government to pick a date though the commissions roadmap still uses 2025. Landfills will capture more methane than under the draft plan. The household bills for those sticking with fossil fuels have been tweaked. Up to 1400 people in the oil and gas industries will retire or change jobs. The government will identify at-risk workers and offer financial support and advice for those transitioning to a cleaner industry. Up to 2300 vehicle mechanics will also retire or change jobs. This is because electric cars require less maintenance. Factories will substitute coal and gas for electricity, wood waste and (potentially) hydrogen. Coal boilers (except for businesses requiring very high temperatures) have already been banned , which is one of the first things on the commissions to-do list. Food processing facilities, such as the factories using coal to dry milk into powder, will ditch coal between now and 2040 . Buildings will stop burning coal for heat by 2030, and start phasing out natural gas after that. Products and packaging will be re-designed. The stuff we make should be increasingly reusable and recyclable, to minimise emissions from manufacturing and waste. Well stop buying products containing hydrofluorocarbon gases, as these refrigerants are very powerful greenhouse gases. Whats new? The impact on vehicle mechanics is new and significant: between 900 and 2300 fewer jobs by 2035 (though the commission warns this could be an overestimate). The jobs lost in the fossil fuel sectors are now modelled to be 1400, the draft advice gave the figure of 1100. However, the commission also named the industries that should grow: electricity generation, battery refurbishment, waste and forestry. The commission gave the food processing industry a bit of wiggle room to phase out coal, from an end-date of 2037 to before 2040, though the major players and the Government have already started working towards the 2037 date. Methanex may stick around a bit longer, from 2029 to 2040. New policies will be developed with iwi and Maori input. Any new schemes will need to work for Maori land thats owned by a collective. Iwi will be able to calculate their collective carbon footprint. Skills and re-training programmes assisting Maori will be designed by Maori. Tangata whenua may be more likely to switch industries, under the commissions roadmap. However, more jobs will be gained than lost. Iwi will receive assistance to meet new rules, particularly any restricting land development. For example, a collective developing land with older forests might get financial assistance to replant trees elsewhere as offsets. Whats new? The final advice puts more emphasis on the Crown-Maori relationship in designing our low-carbon transition. Cow and sheep numbers will fall by 13.6 per cent by 2030. The country will still produce roughly the same amount of milk and meat, but with fewer animals burping out the potent greenhouse gas methane. The commission is predicting herd numbers will drop by 8 per cent anyway, but its advice recommends stepping this shrinkage up by roughly another 6 per cent. Some farms will replace animals with horticulture. The remaining meat and dairy farms will track carbon stored in their trees, soils and wetlands, and adopt best-practice animal and feed management. Low-methane sheep will be selected. This will help the country to meet its goal of cutting methane by 10 per cent by 2030. A similar programme for cows kicked off this year , but this isnt factored into the commissions first budgets. Fertiliser use will decrease. When theres too much nitrogen available in the soil, bugs produce the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide, but selective fertiliser application can help break this cycle. The commission has floated the idea of pricing artificial nitrogen fertilisers as part of our Emissions Trading Scheme, rather than waiting to include them in the new pricing system for livestock emissions (known as He Waka Eke Noa). A methane-cutting technology will need to emerge or we may have to make greater cuts to herd numbers. Without a vaccine or food additive that reduces methane, we may just scrape into our 2050 targets but are unlikely to be on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the commission says. The commission wants to see a boost towards research into promising techniques. Whats new? Feedback to the commission said it would be harder to cut agricultural emissions by improving how we farm. The herd reduction estimates have been revised from 15 per cent, down to 13.6 per cent. The idea to price agricultural nitrous oxide in one way (under our Emissions Trading Scheme) and agricultural methane in another wasn't in the draft advice. The Huntly power station will ditch coal by 2030. The commission proposes that natural gas be used as a back-up fuel after that date, though thats at odds with the Governments plan to have a back-up power plant running on renewables by the end of the decade . Watch this space. New wind and solar farms will appear on hills and sunny flats. Renewable power plants will need to generate 20 per cent more power to meet the new demand for electricity by 2035. Geothermal plants play a role, alongside wind and solar. Owners of geothermal stations are hoping to come up with a technical solution (such as reinjecting greenhouse gases back into the ground) to reduce the emissions they produce. Whats new? The commission originally thought geothermal generation plants with high emissions may be forced to close, but it now notes their footprints decreased in recent years, and should continue to. Native deforestation will be banned from 2025. Instead of losing native forest, the country will start to gain it: planting at least 12,000 hectares in 2021, rising to 25,000 hectares annually by 2030. These new forests will suck up carbon for centuries. Well start to notice more native birds and lizards and increasing water quality from the new forests. Exotic forest planting will also ramp up between now and 2030. After that, new pines will taper off, with an increased focus on permanent native planting. Whats new? No major changes. The commission agreed that pest control is essential to ensuring our newly planted forests survive. *This story has been edited to provide more detail on how the emissions budgets have changed between the draft and final reports (story edited June 10, 11am). It also clarifies the larger cost of 2.3 per cent of GDP (story edited June 18, 10.30am). Stay on top of the latest climate news. The Forever Project's Olivia Wannan will keep you in the know each week. Sign up here .