Climate change: 'The gap is big'
This story was originally published in Newsroom.co.nz and is republished with permission. Sarah Mead was at the big UN climate change conference in Poland and writes that the consensus ultimately achieved was a major diplomatic success. "The gap is big; the gap is big." Those were the words of the Head of the UN Environment Chief Scientist as he presented the Emissions Gap Report 2018 during the 24th Conference of the Parties (COP24) in Katowice, Poland. He was not exaggerating. To limit global warming to 1.5C - which is essential for vulnerable countries like those in the Pacific - global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must halve by 2030. To limit global warming to even the upper temperature limit of 2C requires reducing GHG emissions by a quarter. READ MORE: * Laughter as US promotes fossil fuels at climate conference * Scientists call for 'unprecedented' action * Attenborough: Climate change is 'our greatest threat' * EU steps up international co-operation on climate change Countries therefore have just over a decade to radically transform their economies. But transformation appears to be a long way off. The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, aims to limit global warming to 1.5C or "well below" 2C. It leaves it up to countries though to set national commitments to achieve this goal. On the basis of countries' present commitments (which many are not on track to achieve), global warming is expected reach around 3.2C by 2100. Indeed, global GHG emissions increased in 2017 after three years of stagnation. The door is still open to achieve the Paris Agreement's goals, but it's closing fast. As noted in the UN Report: "Now more than ever, unprecedented and urgent action is required by all nations". THE NEGOTIATIONS Over the first two weeks of this month, representatives from each country met in Katowice to negotiate the 'rulebook' for the Paris Agreement. In order to operationalise the broad obligations in the Agreement, it was necessary to agree on a set of guidelines: a process of adding 'meat to the bones' so to speak. Given the enormous nature of this task and the vastly different negotiating positions of some countries, the negotiations were at times tense. The end of the first week saw certain countries refuse to "welcome" a Special Report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on global warming of 1.5C - a refusal which was criticised by several countries including New Zealand. And when after more than a week of negotiations there were still many unresolved issues, the COP President was forced to change the mode of negotiations - pressing countries to move beyond differences and present new solutions. Despite these hurdles, there were also unexpected highlights. During a full plenary at the end of the first week, a group of youth Maori delegates from Te Ara Whatu spontaneously sang a waiata following the adoption of a decision regarding the Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform - "a first" noted the Chair and commanding the attention of the world's delegates. THE PARIS RULEBOOK Consensus at times seemed unattainable. How could Kiribati, the future of which is imperilled by climate change, be expected to agree with the US - the largest historical emitter of GHG emissions and which "strongly believe[s] that no country should have to sacrifice economic prosperity or energy security in pursuit of environmental sustainability" (as noted by an advisor during COP24)? But consensus was indeed achieved. On Saturday - after negotiations were extended for one day - the President of COP24 announced that countries had reached agreement. The final decision, which extends over 133 pages, contains painstakingly negotiated details on how countries will operationalise the Paris Agreement. While such details may seem mundane and unimportant, they are essential for the success of the Paris Agreement - which without would be of limited efficacy. As is always the case with multilateral agreements, the final decision represents a compromise. "No one is entirely happy with this rulebook, but it is an important step," noted Christiana Figueres, former UN climate chief, on the adoption of the final decision. Developing countries, who are less able to respond to climate change and have contributed to it the least, consider that the deal does not deliver the right "level of balance". As noted by Egypt on behalf of the Group of 77 plus China: "We must not gloss over the real differences between the developed and developing countries, both in responsibility and capability. We need to find a better way of doing this together". Countries were also unable to reach agreement on the rules concerning carbon trading in global emissions reduction, after the proposed text was blocked by Brazil. IS IT ENOUGH TO PUT US ON TRACK? To be clear: achieving consensus in Katowice was a considerable diplomatic achievement. By agreeing to an agreed set of rules, the outcome will breathe life into the Paris Agreement. It is not yet clear though whether the rules are sufficient to pressure countries to make the changes necessary to avoid dangerous climate change. Certainly, current commitments are insufficient. The risks associated with failing to prevent dangerous climate change are severe. Impacts of global warming are already being felt around the world. At 1.5C, the impacts on biodiversity, extreme weather events and sea-level rise are set to increase - with catastrophic consequences. At 2C, the impacts will be even more severe: coral reefs are, for instance, expected to be wiped out. In the absence of sufficiently ambitious commitments by countries, citizens groups are taking action into their own hands. During COP24, Greenpeace released a People's Guide to holding governments to account through the courts, and school students went on strike in Australia and Sweden. Vanuatu, for its part, announced its intention to explore legal action against the world's most polluting fossil fuel corporations and countries, while also calling on the International Criminal Court in the Hague to "extend its outreach to the Pacific island nations" that "suffer from climate atrocities". * * * Climate change affects all countries, but none more than Small Island Developing States (SIDS). During COP24, the Pacific SIDS issued a Declaration calling on countries to "take dramatic and urgent steps". Presented by Prime Minister Bainimarama of Fiji, the Declaration acknowledged that COP24 represented a "pivotal moment in human history": "our future is at stake and we only have 12 years". The outcome of COP24 is a step in the right direction, but a leap towards more ambitious action is still urgently required. This story was originally published in Newsroom.co.nz and is republished with permission. Newsroom