What would a new climate change minister mean for climate action?
After Labour's decisive electoral win on Saturday, James Shaw's days as climate change minister may be numbered. Shaw was appointed to the role in 2017 as part of the Greens agreement with the coalition Government, though he was not a Cabinet member. Although the Greens are expected to take two more MPs into Parliament, Labour's majority means Shaw's party will be in a weaker negotiating position this time around, if they want to remain in government. And even with an arrangement, a Labour MP could still be appointed as Shaws successor. During his three-year term as minister, Shaw drafted and passed the Zero Carbon Act , reformed and strengthened the emissions trading scheme , allocated $200 million to weaning public institutions off coal and natural gas and outlined plans to require financial organisations to disclose their climate risks. His Zero Carbon Act also created the independent Climate Change Commission to provide advice to Cabinet on taking climate action. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said she expects to form a government during the next two to three weeks . Ministerial portfolios will be announced as part of this process. READ MORE: * Election 2020 live: Jacinda Ardern and Labour celebrate as MPs arrive, National Party blame game kicks off * Election 2020: Jacinda Ardern says talks with Greens to conclude next week as she arrives to huge applause in caucus * Labour must govern from the centre in its own right Environmental Defence Society chairman Gary Taylor said Shaw did a very good job as minister. He would obviously be a prime contender in his own right. The relationship between Labour and the Greens is the broader political question that will be answered in the coming weeks, Taylor said. If the parties came to an agreement, Shaw would be the first cab off the rank in terms of a Green minister, he added. Considering Labours emphasis on renewable electricity , the energy minister currently Megan Woods is another potential contender for the portfolio, Taylor said. Environment Minister David Parker, who held the portfolio in Helen Clarks Government, is a third. This terms environment minister will be reforming the Resource Management Act , a task bigger than Ben-Hur, Taylor added. However, youd have to say [David Parker] has got capacity to do other stuff as well. During the last term, he oversaw the quite complicated and challenging freshwater reforms while at the same time being minister of trade and associate minister of finance. Labour MP Deborah Russells finance and tax background could be an asset in the role, Taylor said. Climate change policy is very much about financial instruments and managing economic transition. A climate change minister must be capable of building consensus as climate change policy needs to endure when the Government changes, Taylor said. Its interesting and its complicated. In a way, we have an abundance of good candidates. Greenpeace climate campaigner Amanda Larsson said the fate of the role was anyones guess but an agreement between Labour and the Greens would ensure consistency. After the coalition Government introduced laws setting out how the country would reach carbon neutrality last term, the new one will need to introduce the policies to get us there, she said. The minister will require a strong personality who can get stuff done in the face of criticism, she added. Dealing with climate change necessarily means disruption to the status quo. Weve seen Megan Woods really stick her neck out on the oil and gas ban, which was a climate decision. She faced a lot of backlash from industry and even within her own department, but she stuck to it. I think New Zealanders have rewarded Labour for that decision as well. Similarly, David Parker really stuck his neck out on the nitrogen cap in the freshwater regulations, which industry didnt want a bar of. In 2022, the new Government will be presented with the recommended plan for shrinking agricultural gases developed by the He Waka Eke Noa partnership with the agricultural industry. But its not the only regulation affecting farmers, who will also need to adapt to freshwater , biodiversity and Resource Management Act reforms, DairyNZ chair Jim van der Poel said. We need government ministers to understand the impact of the suite of regulations on the agriculture sector and how they interact, he said. We need ministers, and their departments, to be working closely together as well as closely with us whether that means a joint portfolio or otherwise. The organisation has a constructive and positive working relationship with Shaw, van der Poel said. We have appreciated his willingness to engage with the agricultural sector and hear our perspectives on climate policy. We are keen to continue having a robust and effective working relationship with all ministers in the next government. Former Climate Change Minister and National MP Nick Smith saidthe ministerial position had always been important. My experience in the Cabinet room is the energy, commitment and capability of the minister has far more importance than the number on their seat. But I would be disappointed if the minister for climate change was not in the Cabinet room, he said. The challenge in this term of Parliament is going to be not to stabilise emissions but actually to get that curve bent down. Smith did not think the establishment of the commission reduced the ministers position. However, he agreed a ministers other portfolios are an important factor. For example, when the Key government wanted to help establish an international agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol what would become the Paris Agreement it gave the portfolio to Trade Minister Tim Groser. The minister requires the support of senior Government figures, he said. When Smith wanted to implement the emissions trading scheme despite public opposition, Prime Minister John Key and Finance Minister Bill English backed me and that was the only way the scheme would start and make progress. It is the most scientifically complex issue of any portfolio, and I've done 14 different jobs as a minister. It is made more difficult by it being a global issue. Shaws office did not respond to enquiries.