Climate Change: Net zero alone isn’t a get-out-of-jail-free card
The 12th edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report paints a predictable picture: winning slowly is the same as losing. OPINION: Grim and bleak. Thats the takeaway of the latest UNEP GAP report, the yearly digest on the gap between where the world is tracking on carbon emissions and where it ought to be tracking to keep the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement alive. Timed to sober up decision-makers as they descend on COP26 in Glasgow , this years report is set against rebounding emissions and the painful realisation that the world has, by and large, missed its opportunity to direct fiscal rescue and recovery packages towards a cleaner future. Nevertheless, if youre a conditional optimist like me and squint hard enough, theres hope on the horizon. Net zero has its share of critics, but for better or worse, its quickly become the lodestar for industrial-scale decarbonisation. READ MORE: * Climate policies that ignore the reality of human nature will ultimately fail * Prince Charles warns of 'dangerously narrow' window to tackle climate change * New Zealand is failing the test when it comes to climate change education * How the new human right to a healthy environment could accelerate New Zealands action on climate change * Greta Thunberg on Kiwi climate activists, lockdown and Donald Trump If implemented in full, existing carbon-cutting pledges by nations are still likely to consign civilisation to a 2.7C warmer world by 2100 (compared with pre-industrial times). To stand a decent chance of limiting heating to the guardrail of 1.5C, the sobering truth is we have just eight years, the time John Key was PM for, to slash 55 per cent off our annual global emissions. Its a prospect that experts say is still technically possible. But politically speaking, stranger things may not have happened. And what of the 2C goal? That requires a 30 per cent cut of additional CO2e reductions by the time 2030 rolls around. For some context, the 28-billion-tonne gap is the same amount of CO2e that the world emitted in 2004. Or think about it another way: in 2020 the world witnessed an unprecedented 5.4 per cent drop in fossil CO2 emissions due to Covid. Even if we were to manage that scale of reduction every year until 2030, wed still likely blow through our 1.5C budget. (Not to mention, fossil emissions are expected to spring back by almost 5 per cent this year.) Be under no illusion: were not looking at a gap. This is a gulf. Set against the gloom of continued inaction, a new concept has rocketed, like Greta Thunberg , from relative obscurity to centre stage in climate discourse . Net zero pledges are suddenly everywhere, and sprouting from unexpected quarters, including Russia , Turkey , Saudi Arabia and Australia . Before these latest announcements were even made, the UNEP report shows that if all net zero pledges are delivered as promised, the world could shave 0.5C off the 2.7C temperature projections to 2100. Thats a lot. But is net zero evidence of green shoots or evidence of greenwashing? At least 60 countries and the EU have now set net zero targets , whether that be in law, proposed legislation, a policy document or via a government announcement. A further 78 nations intend to. Critics rightfully swoop on targets, circling around the lack of accountability (its distinctly easy for leaders to promise) and the fact the world cant offset its way to zero emissions. Yet, in some ways, that misses the point. Even if some targets arent being set in good faith now, expectations are being created, investors and corporations will align, campaigners will begin holding decision makers to account, and the needle will move. Because a target is only as good as the policies that underpin it, we need greater scrutiny. To bring accountability to the net zero ecosystem, Im lucky enough to be leading a collaboration between four organisations to shine a light on the integrity of thousands of national, sub-national and company targets. Launching today, the Net Zero Tracker , if everything goes to plan, will be with us until the jobs done later this century. For UNEPs net zero chapter, we assessed the net zero targets of 49 countries, representing over half of global emissions and GDP. As expected, we found high levels of ambiguity, from huge variations in scope and gas coverage to a conspicuous lack of clarity on the use of carbon credits. The prize of getting net zero right is real. But that prize depends on pledges being made robust, and on 2030 promises being made consistent with longer-term commitments. The pathway to net zero matters. Of the nine G20 members for which we could establish an emissions path, five had 2030 targets that put them on a linear path towards net zero. We found the other four nations on delayed pathways, where cumulative emissions and resulting global warming are higher compared with a linear path. Net zero alone isnt a get-out-of-jail-free card. Even if every net zero pledge was achieved, we found that theres still more than a 15 per cent chance that heating will exceed 2.5C by 2100. The concept of net zero our route to halting global warming, had to explode into our consciousness sometime. Now its here, we have to start our race to the top, not on quantity, but quality. And at COP26, all net zero targets urgently need to be backed up by near-term actions that give confidence to what net zero promises. John Lang is Net Zero Tracker lead for the London-based Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit and a contributing author of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2021.