What is climate change adaptation and how do we do it?
Andrew Tait is a chief climate, atmosphere and hazards scientist at Niwa. OPINION: Some impacts of climate change are already baked in and will affect us for decades to come, even as we do all we can to reduce our carbon emissions. Our seas will continue to warm and rise, droughts will last longer, and well experience more frequent and intense flooding . We will have to adapt accordingly, but we can reduce the pain we'll face by starting to plan now. So, how do we do it? Adaptation is not rocket science. Youre faced with a situation where something is challenging your routine, so you need to adapt. We do this every day with barely a second thought. It might rain this afternoon, so Ill hang the washing up on a clothes horse inside. I need to get to the hardware store before it closes tonight, so Ill take the car to work today instead of the bus. Humans are by our nature adaptable. But were not so good at strategic adaptation, and this is the realm of climate change adaptation . READ MORE: * COP26: World doesn't spend nearly enough preparing for climate disasters, UN report says * We must be strategic in planning our cities * Climate Change: It's our choice whether we react or adapt Strategic adaptation requires long-term consideration of issues and the weighing up of potential solutions. And for climate change, long-term means decades rather than years or months. On this time scale, we need much more than a second thought. We need to consider all the different effects of climate change and other global issues (many of which work together and even make the others worse). And we need to think in terms of best- and worst-case scenarios. Heres an example: Your low-lying coastal farmland is being flooded by the sea during a combination of king tides and storms. The pasture on the saltwater-flooded land dies and needs replanting the following season. Production is down and costs are up, but the combination of storm and king tide only happens once every 20 years or so, so its manageable. Heres the rub. Sea-level rise science says that in 30 (or maybe 50) years time this will be happening annually and in a further 20 (but possibly 40) years your land will be flooded on every high tide. Obviously, this wouldnt be suitable for farming. What do you do? Whatever your circumstances and climate adaptation pressures, start by drawing up a timeline from now to 2100. Picture what your situation will look like by the end of the century and think about the best possible outcomes for you and your community. How will your great-grandchildren and their generation experience and cherish this space? In the example of the coastal farm, you may make the call that if flooding is happening every year, the land is no longer viable for pasture-based farming. Mark on your timeline the span of years when annual flooding might be the norm sometime between 2050 (worst case) and 2070 (best case). Now consider your land use and management options between now and these best- and worse-case dates. Think about the costs and benefits of all the options and in each scenario be mindful of not thwarting your desired end-of-century outcomes. What pathways are open to you? What other things do you need to consider? What steps do you need to take in the near term? Lastly, think about indicators of change and make a point to look for and record them on the timeline. For the farmer, these could be the saltwater level in the wells, pasture productivity in your coastal strip, signs of increased erosion along the beach or the king tide mark measured on a pole. This evidence will be your guide to the speed of change and whether youre on a worst- or best-case track. The example Ive given here is just one of many where strategic climate change adaptation planning is needed. Other examples include buying or building a house, investing in a new business or enterprise, considering alternate land or water uses, enhancing flood protection schemes, upgrading or moving long-lived infrastructure the list goes on. The key to strategic planning is thinking long-term, considering multiple factors and scenarios, and starting with a desired future outcome and working backwards. Soon, the Government will be releasing their draft National Adaptation Plan with recommendations for all sectors, communities, and businesses. Climate change adaptation does take more than a second thought, but it can be done. Your plan might also change over time, but dont worry youre adaptable. A weekly email newsletter, by the Forever Project's Olivia Wannan, rounds up the latest climate developments. Sign up here .