Climate change will intensify cyclone risks, but a new model will help forecast their impact
A new tropical cyclone forecasting model has the potential to save lives here and in the Pacific. More time for communities to prepare is key, and the new outlook model will generate predictions for the number of tropical cyclones at an individual country level, up to four months before the start of the tropical cyclone season. Niwa climate scientist Dr Andrew Lorrey, who has been working on the new model, said the new tools like adding an arrow in the quiver for cyclone forecasting. It extends the timeframe that were actually keeping an eye on the situation. READ MORE: * Storm warning: A new long-range tropical cyclone outlook is set to reduce disaster risk for Pacific Island communities * Flooding rains drenching eastern Australia but none of it coming New Zealand's way * 'Very high chance' Category 3 tropical cyclone will hit Fiji over holidays Its been developed by climate scientists from the University of Newcastle and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), in New Zealand. Lorrey said the modelling is important for New Zealand, which experiences cyclone-related storm conditions on average nine out of every ten years. Nearly every year, we experience some kind of impact when these storms come in to our region. Cyclones are more severe in the Pacific, but still have a huge impact when they reach New Zealand. In February 2018, Wellingtons Makara Beach was pummeled by ex-Cyclone Gita . An aggressive storm urge swept logs, rocks and sand through the village, flooding homes and destroying property. They are still very strong, and very dangerous, because they bring strong winds, rough seas, and the rainfall which they cause is significant because it can cause slips and slides and flooding, Lorrey said. It can cause loss of life, and obviously the Wahine Disaster is one of those events. As the Wahine headed north, the fierce Cyclone Giselle was heading south , cutting a destructive path as it headed down the country. Its also known that climate change will intensify the impact of cyclone seasons, and is making the events more and more common . Lorrey said every community around New Zealand should be aware of the cyclone seasons, usually November to April. Its very important for New Zealanders to listen to the official forecasts and heed the guidance of these long-range forecasts, he said. People need to be prepared for these impacts on their own personal life for them to be able to, quote, get ready and get through. The new cyclone outlook model can detect increased cyclone activity and forecast cyclone activity months ahead of time, he said. Current operational outlooks only offer guidance one month before cyclone season starts. Island nations are extremely vulnerable, hit with extreme winds, storm surge, prolonged rainfall and flooding, adversely affecting people, infrastructure and economies year on year. It lets us know that something ahead of time is coming down the track, and to start getting ready now. Its going to be used in conjunction with other forecasting methods that we use, and its going to add confidence to our forecasts in the Pacific and in New Zealand. Tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific region since 1950, have claimed the lives of nearly 1500 people and significantly impacted a further 3.1 million.