As Liddell bites the dust, can NSW supply enough power for a looming El Niño summer peak?
As coal-fired plants continue their demise, the largest source of new power every year for the past five has been rooftop solar AGL Energys Liddell coal-fired power station in New South Wales closed on Friday , Australias first big power plant closure since Hazelwoods demise in Victoria in 2017. Liddell had been operating at less than half its original 2,000-megawatt capacity for some time. Still, its exit sharpens the focus on the challenges facing not only NSW but also the rest of the national electricity market (Nem). Origin Energys black coal-fired Eraring power station is scheduled to be the next to shut, with a planned August 2025 closure. The plant, also in NSW, boasts almost 2,900MW of capacity, making it Australias largest. Relatively costly coal contracts, though, mean Eraring is not always raring to go. NSWs Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap, legislated by the state Coalition government in 2020, is intended to bridge the gap. It aims to attract at least 12 gigawatts of wind and solar farms and 2GW of long-duration storage by 2030. Sign up for Guardian Australias free morning and afternoon email newsletters for your daily news roundup However, the NSW energy minister, Penny Sharpe, says the roadmap has already been tested by the delays in Snowy [Hydros 2.0 pumped storage project] and the foreshadowed possible closure of Eraring. Snowy 2.0 is scheduled to be ready by December 2027 but more than a few including in NSW expect more delays. Officials say they expect to have sufficient new generation sources to fill the gaps left by Eraring. Early exits by any of the other plants, though, could stretch supplies. The governments approach will be to keep the lights on by getting as much renewable energy into operation as soon as possible, accelerating the roadmap where possible and working with coal-fired operators on their transition to ensure there is enough generation for households and businesses, Sharpe said. NSW relies on Queensland and Victoria for about 10% of its power. Both states, however, have recently accelerated their own renewables rush, particularly in Queensland, a laggard in the decarbonisation shift. One NSW official said geographic spread should moderate the risks. Its really unusual in the [Nem] to have a peak demand event in multiple cities at the same time, he said this week. Last June, however, saw a widespread cold snap across eastern states that pushed supplies to the brink. Flooding in coalmines and Covid-delayed maintenance at power plants exacerbated the strain, but a similar event this winter could test the grid, now that Liddell is shut and Queenslands 825MW coal-fired Callide C plant remains out of action after an explosion. Historically, summer provides the peak of power demand and with the looming risk of a powerful El Nino the spike in usage might be particularly sharp later this year. Sign up to Afternoon Update Our Australian afternoon update breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you whats happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion Extra transmission links between states will help, such as the Project EnergyConnect between NSW and South Australia, expected by July 2026. Still, evidence of the ongoing constraints include curbs on existing lines that cut imports by NSW from Victoria by an average 138MW in the first quarter, the Australian Energy Market Operator said on Friday . The great bulk of new investment in the electricity sector is directed to renewable energy since costs are well below alternatives, particularly nuclear, the CSIRO and Aemo say . More clean energy should bring down wholesale prices, as happened in the March quarter, Aemo said on Friday. Renewables now supply about 37% of the Nems power, a share that should rise to about 82% by 2030 according to federal goals. Victoria is banking on offshore windfarms to play a big role in supplying its energy. It also has set a target to have enough storage by 2035 to power half the states homes . However, the industry is warning that while about 5GW of new solar and windfarms started construction nationwide last year, not a lot of capacity was completed. The pipeline of new projects is also beginning to shrink. Stefan Jarnason, a co-founder of Solar Analytics and an industry veteran, said the NSW government considering an intervention to extend Eraring beyond 2025 will deter renewables investors. As long as the governments going maybe we will or maybe we wont close this 2GW coal-fired power station, youre gonna sit on your hands until they give you a firm signal, he said. Better policy would be to make it easier for households to install rooftop solar or expand what they have and even add batteries. We know that the largest source of new generation every year for the past five years has been rooftop solar and will likely continue to be for the next 30 years, Jarnson said.